2021 vision depends on a vaccine

It’s that time of the year when we gaze into crystal balls to see what 2021 has in store for us.

The United Nations (UN) has declared 2021 as the International Year of Peace and Trust; the International Year of Creative Economy for Sustainable Development; the International Year for the Elimination of Child Labour; and the International Year of Fruits and Vegetables. I kid(ney bean) you not.

So, am I seer worth his salt? Last year, I said 2020 would be significant for South Africa as it was on the UN Security Council and was chairing the African Union. Given the unexpected and far-reaching scourge of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country participated and led admirably in these forums. The coronavirus, of course, curtailed travel, and most meetings were held online.

I also wrote, “The Zondo Commission into state capture should wrap up, but will anyone be held accountable? Former President Jacob Zuma’s efforts to remain out of jail will drag on.” Two out of three aint bad.

South Africa is scheduled to hold local government elections in 2021. What will voters make of the African National Congress, and will the Democratic Alliance’s downward trend continue? Will the Economic Freedom Fighters pick up votes?

The status quo of “no South African ambassador in Israel, but no formal downgrade of the embassy” looks likely to continue. Eli Belotsercovsky has been nominated as Israel’s ambassador to South Africa to replace Lior Keinan in Pretoria.

Initially, I felt that the Trump Middle East peace plan was doomed for rejection, but was pleasantly surprised and heartened to see the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan recognise Israel. Trade and tourism ties are set to soar in 2021. Some expect Saudi Arabia to be the next to normalise relations with Israel, but is it prepared to do so without concrete progress with the Palestinians?

And will the incoming Joe Biden administration in the United States (US) pay much attention to the Middle East, given his priorities of tackling COVID-19, the economy, and climate change? Will the US rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, which has been heavily criticised by Israeli leaders? Will Africa be back on the US’s radar again?

The Biden White House will be carefully watched, as the president-elect seeks to restore America’s place in the world. He will try to reverse some Trump policies, and has to contend with the rise of China, and, to a lesser extent, Russia’s resurgence. Washington wants particularly to mend fences with its allies who felt alienated by Trump.

Israel will have its fourth election in two years as the current coalition collapses. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s indictment for breach of trust, fraud, and bribery will continue to dominate Israeli politics.

Britain will finally leave the European Union on 31 December 2020 with or without a deal, and the future relations between the two will be interesting to watch.

A major dynamic in 2021 will be the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, an operation on an unprecedented scale. The pattern of distribution is likely to reinforce the divisions between developed and developing states; poorer countries are likely to be last in line for the vaccines.

The year 2021 is set down for major events that were postponed from 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. These include the UEFA Euro 2020 football tournament; Expo 2020 in the UAE; and the Summer Olympics in Tokyo. The UN’s Climate Change Conference in Glasgow – COP 26 – was also postponed to 2021. The Eurovision Song Contest was cancelled in 2020 for the first time in its 64-year history.

A highlight for rugby fans will be the tour to South Africa of the British and Irish Lions. The Springboks won the previous test match series 12 years ago by two games to one. Time will tell if these all go ahead as the world battles rising spikes in COVID-19 infections and deaths.

Shana tova!

• Steven Gruzd is an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs.