Local terror attack could be a matter of time, experts warn

NICOLA MILTZ

The last few months have seen a sinister increase in terror-linked cases which experts attribute to the country’s dire lack of security, as well as to incompetent and lax intelligence gathering.

 “We should’ve been worried 40 years ago,” warned terrorism analyst Hussein Solomon, senior professor of political studies and governance at the University of the Free State.

He said terrorist organisations have been operating in South Africa for years. “They are all here: Islamic State (IS), Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab – terror networks of foreign and local jihadis operating on local soil.

“What we know is the tip of the iceberg. These organisations have tentacles and they entrench themselves,” he warned.

There is a disturbing and popular opinion among government and security bodies at such threats are not too worrying, as terrorists have not yet carried out attacks within the country’s borders. But the possibility of an attack by a lone extremist remains real.

A few weeks ago, the British government updated its travel advisory for South Africa, warning its citizens that there is a terror threat from extremists linked to the IS group in South Africa. It warned that “terrorists are likely to try carry out attacks in the country”.

This follows the February kidnapping of two South African-UK nationals, Rod and Rachel Saunders, near Vryheid in KwaZulu-Natal, by people allegedly linked to the IS (see page 4).

Three people have since been arrested in connection with the couple’s kidnapping and possible murder. The first two suspects arrested were Sayfydeen Aslam Del Vecchio and Fatima Patel. The house where they were found is suspected to be a safe house. When the Hawks raided it they allegedly found explosives and the couple’s vehicle.

Disturbingly, Patel was on bail after being arrested with her brother, Ebrahim, near Johannesburg during anti-terrorism raids in July 2016 on charges of possessing unlicensed ammunition and explosives. The infamous twin brothers, Brandon-Lee and Tony-Lee Thulsie, were arrested at the same time as Patel. They are still in custody and stand accused of planning terrorist attacks on behalf of the IS, including attacks on Jewish installations. Brigadier Hangwani Mulaudzi of the Hawks said that Patel and her partner had been on their radar.

Meanwhile, two Lebanese citizens appeared in the Kempton Park Magistrate’s Court this week for allegedly illegally exporting components of drones to Hezbollah in Lebanon. South Africa emerged as the central location for their alleged activities. They have been accused by the US of illegally exporting items to Hezbollah, which it has classified as a terrorist organisation.

Solomon firmly believes that South Africa has aided and abetted the blossoming of these groups over time as state security organisations have been directing their focus more on politics and on keeping former president Jacob Zuma in power.

Solomon said he was dismayed by the appointment this week of Dipuo Bertha Letsatsi-Duba as minister of state security. “Given the enormity of the situation, President Cyril Ramaphosa should have appointed a consummate professional with a thorough knowledge of state security matters, at the very least.”

He maintains the government has for years tolerated the presence of terror networks in the country, turning a “blind eye” to the activities of violent extremists. Its thinking is that if the South African government lets them fundraise, recruit and train operatives on local soil, they will not bomb or attack this country.

“Ramaphosa needs to crack the whip,” warned Solomon this week

“South Africa has a legal obligation to prevent these groups from operating here. While it has become harder to strike at targets in other parts of the world because of increased security measures, South Africa has become a soft target for these extremists because of our lax security apparatus.

“There needs to be the political will to eradicate the scourge of terrorism – which there is not,” he cautioned, “and Ramaphosa needs to ensure a radical overhaul of the security apparatus and a radical restructuring of intelligence services.”

Jasmine Opperman, director of Southern Africa Operations at the Terrorism, Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC), said it was unlikely that a terror attack would take place on our soil any time soon.

 “IS-inspired supporters in South Africa appear to be amateur; they are not professionals. Is South Africa vulnerable? Yes. Is there going to be an attack tomorrow? Most likely not. However terror groups are attempting to expand their silent footprint in South Africa, it is not in their interests to expose themselves until they are certain that they can continue their presence and gain maximum propaganda value.”

She said Patel and her two accused were acting out of criminality and that any link to the IS was “coincidental”.

But, she added, South Africa – like any country in the world – cannot deny its vulnerability to attack. “There is a historical footprint of recruitment in South Africa and groups like the IS and al-Qaeda are actively recruiting and spreading their propaganda.”

Travel alerts and advisories indicate high levels of uncertainty about the IS’s next move, but Opperman called these “alarmist”.

Nevertheless, she stressed the urgent need for South Africa to have an effective intelligence service to execute its legal mandate in countering threats to national security.

The British government has highlighted the security risk posed by South African nationals who have travelled to places like Iraq, Syria and Libya to receive training, and the danger they present on their return.

Experts warn that South Africa is also vulnerable to exploitation by numerous organisations registered in the country under false pretences which claim to be “non-violent and peaceful”. The BDS SA movement displays strong support of extreme Islamic groups and shows violence against citizens who are opposed to their cause. The organisation serves as a training ground for youth indoctrination and recruitment, particularly on university campuses.

Jevon Greenblatt, director of the Community Security Organisation (CSO) in Gauteng, said reports suggest terror organisations use South Africa as a base to train, finance and plan terror operations across the globe. As a result, there may be a misconception that groups and individuals will not carry out attacks here.

“It is imperative to be aware that a number of attempted attacks locally have been foiled over the past decade, including al-Qaeda plots in 2010 and again in 2014, Hezbollah in 2012, and the IS in 2016.

“Historically, there may have been a reticence by centrally controlled terror organisations to disturb the status quo in countries that supported or tolerated their logistical ambitions and infrastructure, but at best, this was always a temporary ‘stay of the hand’ until a time when the target was too attractive or the status quo had changed – either as a result of activities by the ‘host country’ or a shift in the strategic vision of the terror organisation.

“It is important to remember that al-Qaeda of Iraq, a branch of al-Qaeda morphed into the IS, which has continuously called for attacks to be carried out across the globe, regardless of previous unwritten agreements – resulting in the foiled local planned attacks by the Thulsie brothers and their IS-linked cell.

“It is deeply irresponsible to assume that a terror attack will never take place in South Africa,” warns Greenblatt.

“That said, it is incumbent on our community to pray for the best but plan for the worst.

“Security is not, and should never be, a knee-jerk reaction to a particular scare or media report. By that stage, it is already too late. Establishing security takes time, funds and preparation, and starting tomorrow is too late,” he says.

“As in most tragic incidents, no one expects it to happen to them until it does. Let us not be the community that has to ask itself what could have been if we’d done things differently.”