The Israeli elections and the politics of the individual

AUBREY KATZEF

What has happened to the once almighty Labour Party? First, it has for years lacked a strong charismatic leader. You have to look back more than 20 years to the party’s last strong leader, Yitzhak Rabin. For a good number of years, there has been infighting between leading members so that the party elected Avi Gabba, a virtual unknown and only a recent member of the Labour Party, as chairperson.

Fed up with this scenario, party members have deserted the party, polls show, and appear to be supporting newcomer Bennie Gantz. They may prefer him as a potential prime minister, or it might be a case of what I term “strategic voting”. Knowing that there is no hope of a Labour Party victory, they believe by throwing their weight behind Gantz, his party will have more of a chance of winning the election and being asked to form a government. This happened when Ariel Sharon formed Kadimah in the 1990s, and won over many traditional Labour Party voters. Sharon formed the government and became prime minister with Kadimah. Though it worked then in spite of forecasts by many columnists in the mostly left-wing newspapers, I don’t think it will work this time.

The major personality of this election is Gantz and his Israeli Renaissance Party. He is being punted by all and sundry as the man to beat Bibi. All he has to do is gather the centre-left where he places himself up with the left, and it will be the answer to the “anyone but Bibi” cry.

He is one of the new breed of what I call “the politics of the individual”, in which the success of the party revolves around the party leader. Of course, this also applies to other parties such as Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, Orly Levy-Abekasis’s Gesher, Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut, Baruch Marzel’s Otzma Yehudit, and maybe even Tsippi Livni’s Hatunah.

Much is known about Gantz’s military career, but very little about his political views. He has made very few policy statements and held even less public meetings. He appears to have a right-wing view on settlements but a left-wing view on social issues. I am sure he has top-class consultants advising him, but so far he hasn’t shown his hand.

Moshe Ya’alon and his Telem party, another of the new parties running for the first time, has joined up with Gantz, but I wonder whether this will make any difference to the number of voters Gantz will attract. Other than a brief spell as defence minister, I don’t think he rates as a superstar and a good catch. Gabi Ashkenazi, the former Chief of Staff of Zahal, would be a better vote catcher.

One of the problems Gantz faces is that unlike when Yair Lapid formed Yesh Atid, he (Gantz) does not have the unaffiliated (I prefer this description to that of centre) to himself. There is fierce competition for the unaffiliated, including Moshe Kahlon for the centre-right and Naftali Bennett for the far-right. Bennett may attract those unaffiliated voters who like his strong views on defence but would not vote for him when he headed Bayit Yehudi, a right-wing religious party. Gantz, Lapid, and Levy-Abacasis are all rivals for the centre-left vote.

By placing himself in the centre, Gantz will suffer very much the way Lapid did after doing so well in his first election and winning 19 seats. The only way Lapid could prove himself was to join the coalition. This meant that his party’s policy in most cases had to be subjugated to the policies of the coalition government. Since he left the government, his party has been reduced to 11 seats, and with many more of the unaffiliated supporting Gantz, I would be surprised if Lapid managed to retain his 11 seats.

Gantz, too, will have little to offer if he doesn’t join the coalition, but he has stated that he won’t do this. If he doesn’t, then what will he achieve in opposition? Will he do better than Labour? If you look at the slate chosen by Labour in its primaries held last week, it has a number of experienced politicians. Gantz so far has failed to attract big names.

It’s too early to predict. This can take place only after the closing date for submission of candidate lists.

It’s certainly going to the most interesting election in recent times.

• Aubrey Katzef is a Cape Town attorney who has a CA, BProc and an Honours degree in Jewish Studies. He is a dedicated Zionist and been involved in Jewish communal affairs and various communal bodies his whole life, including the Jacob Gitlin Library in Cape Town. Aubrey has been an Israeli election pundit for many years and his predictions are seldom off the mark – when they are, it is by a very small margin.