What to watch out for in 2022

It’s that time of the year to read the tea leaves and see what 2022 holds in store for us.

The United Nations has declared 2022 as International Year of Artisanal Fisheries and Aquaculture. It’s also the International Year of Glass. So, keep fish in a tank to cover both bases.

COVID-19 sadly hasn’t disappeared, and South Africa will grapple with its fourth wave of the disease well into the new year, driven by the new Omicron variant.

As the coronavirus continues to mutate rapidly, we’re going to run out of Greek letters to name variants. Unless the country can vaccinate a much higher proportion of the population (currently at just 24%), we won’t get on top of COVID-19 in 2022.

Economists have a generally gloomy outlook for South Africa next year, predicting a weaker rand, high inflation, and continued loadshedding. It’s time to invest in a generator or invertor to keep your lights on.

Politically, the fragile coalitions formed in the wake of local government elections will be put to the test. And will we, eventually, receive the report from the Zondo Commission into State Capture and see some senior figures prosecuted?

Israelis will be keenly following the legal proceedings against former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2022. However, taking a leaf from Jacob Zuma’s book, he seems likely to delay and prevaricate to draw out his prosecution, using every legal loophole.

2022 is the 55th anniversary of the Six-Day War in 1967. Israel will celebrate the reunification of Jerusalem on Yom Yerushalayim in spite of a new United Nations General Assembly resolution only recognising Palestinian claims to sovereignty over East Jerusalem.

There are flashpoints that might erupt into fighting in 2022, including by Russia against Ukraine and China against Taiwan. Diplomatic efforts to prevent war will need to be stepped up by the international community. Fighting in Ethiopia, Libya, and Syria will continue to demand international attention, as will unchecked migration across the Mediterranean, from Eastern Europe, and on the United States border with Mexico. African conflicts also displace millions of people within and between countries.

February will mark the Platinum Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth II, marking 70 years on the throne for the 95-year-old monarch. This is the longest ever reign of a British sovereign. Her first prime minister was Winston Churchill, and she has been served by 13 others since then.

France goes to the polls in April to see whether Emmanuel Macron can win a second term by fending off challengers from the right and left.

Brazil has an election slated for September, with President Jair Bolsonaro growing increasingly unpopular. South America’s largest country will mark its bicentennial from its founding in 1822.

The United States will vote in congressional midterm elections in November. Will the Democratic majorities be upheld in the Senate and House of Representatives, or will there be a swing towards Republicans? Is Donald Trump going to be a factor in these contests? Undoubtedly, the composition of Congress will shape the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term.

In terms of milestone anniversaries, 2022 is the 110th year since the sinking of the Titanic, the 100th year since the discovery of King Tutankhamen’s tomb, and the 75th year of independence for Pakistan and India. Egypt will celebrate 100 years of independence from Britain.

2022 marks 80 years since the infamous Wannsee Conference that plotted the genocide against European Jewry, and the 70th year since the first publication of Anne Frank’s diary. It will be 50 years since the massacre by Palestinian terrorists of Israeli athletes and coaches at 1972 Munich Olympics, an event commemorated for the first time only at the Tokyo 2020 games (held this year).

It’s 25 years since the deaths of Mother Teresa of Calcutta and Princess Diana. It’s 50 years since the release of The Godfather. It’s also 500 years since Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan’s Victoria became the first ship to circumnavigate the world.

Big sporting events include the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, the first time that the same city will host both summer and winter games. The Commonwealth Games are scheduled for Birmingham in July-August. Qatar will host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in November-December. This is the first time a World Cup is being held in the northern winter, as Qatar is brutally hot in summer.

In 2022, the world and South Africa will continue to battle against the pandemic, and it’s likely to remain the biggest news story, with many ups and downs. Get used to loadshedding, rising prices, and economic stagnation.

Finally, the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) elective conference in December 2022 is also one to watch to see whether Cyril Ramaphosa survives or is replaced as ANC president, a decision that resonates well beyond the party.

• Steven Gruzd is an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.