UK and France turn left, Jews at crossroads

This year, about 90 countries are holding – or have held – an election. That’s almost half the states in the world going to the polls. Longtime ruling parties have been dislodged from outright majorities in South Africa and India, forcing them into coalitions.

The United States (US) will pit an incumbent octogenarian against a septuagenarian in November, unless President Joe Biden is somehow forced out of the race due to his age and health.

In the past week, there was a sea-change votes in the United Kingdom (UK) and France, both of which have sizeable Jewish populations. Let’s consider how these two recent elections and their results affect their respective Jewish communities, some of which appear to have short memories.

After 14 years of rule by the Conservative Party – from 2010 to 2015 in coalition with the Liberal Democrats – British voters emphatically swept Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party into power on 4 July. The Conservatives were decimated. Labour gained 211 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, for a total of 411 seats, while the Tories under Rishi Sunak went from 365 seats to just 121. King Charles III has already appointed Starmer as prime minister.

The Jewish community, numbering 287 360 people in the 2021 census, barely 0.5% of the population, had previously flocked to the Tories, but many have swung back to Starmer’s Labour.

It’s not too long ago that the unapologetically anti-Israel Jeremy Corbyn was leading the Labour Party – from 2015 to 2020. Many left-leaning Jews felt extremely uncomfortable in the party, with some high-profile walkouts, resignations, and defections. They accused Corbyn and his acolytes of systemic antisemitism, supporting Islamist terrorists, and making life intolerable for Jews within Labour’s ranks. Starmer has made concerted efforts to combat antisemitism in making Labour electable. I’m sure few in the Jewish community celebrated when Corbyn won as an independent in Islington in London, infamously saying, “Palestine is on the ballot”.

The Conservatives remained steadfast supporters of Israel in spite of coming under considerable popular pressure as the war against Hamas has progressed since October 2023. We should, however, now expect a different approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In its 2024 election manifesto, Labour said, “Long-term peace and security in the Middle East will be an immediate focus. Labour will continue to push for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, the upholding of international law, and a rapid increase of aid into Gaza. Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people. It’s not in the gift of any neighbour, and is also essential to the long-term security of Israel. We are committed to recognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process which results in a two-state solution with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.” Notice, once again, that it doesn’t say that Israel should be a Jewish state.

The Jewish community may take some comfort in the fact that Starmer’s wife, Lady Victoria, is Jewish. The family has a regular Shabbat dinner on Friday nights. They belong to the Liberal Jewish Synagogue in St Johns Wood, London. Starmer has said he will continue to carve out this time for rest and family connection, something Sunak belittled him for in the election campaign.

Turning to France, it has between 480 000 and 550 000 Jews, depending on your definitions. This is 0.4% of the population, mostly Mizrachi and Sephardi Jews from North Africa and the Middle East expelled after 1948 from Arab countries.

After a drubbing from the right-wing National Rally (RN) party in European parliamentary elections in June, French President Emmanuel Macron gambled on calling a snap election. France’s electoral system mandates two rounds of voting a week apart for parliamentarians. Before the second round on 7 July, many candidates from either Macron’s Renaissance Party or the left-wing New Popular Front bloc pulled out of the elections to increase the chances of an anti-RN candidate winning in each constituency. This is a tradition in French politics, to thwart the right.

It backfired on Macron. His centrists were beaten into second place by the leftists, with perennial challenger Marine Le Pen’s RN coming in an unexpected third, having won in the first round. France thus has a hung Parliament with no clear solution to form a ruling coalition, and the Paris Olympic Games are just three weeks away.

For the Jews in this election, it was an agonising choice. It led, somewhat bizarrely, to Jews being urged to vote for RN, with Le Pen coming out as a staunch Israel supporter, and stoking fears of Islamism. Many simply couldn’t stomach voting for the RN, with its roots in the antisemitism and Holocaust denialism of Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie. But for many Jews, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, led by the communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is worse. It has been extreme in its antagonism to Israel and its antisemitism, making life very uncomfortable for the Jewish community. Israel is bracing for a new wave of French olim; more than 50 000 have moved to Israel in the past decade as antisemitism has soared.

Of course, Jews are small minorities in all these countries – India, South Africa, the US, the UK, and France. Their votes, while not insignificant, don’t matter much. Isn’t it ironic that in the only country with a Jewish majority – Israel – there are no elections in sight for a wounded population demanding accountability after 7 October?

• Steven Gruzd is a political analyst in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.