Trump holds the cards, but all bets are off

With US President Joe Biden having finally bowed out – as predicted in this column two weeks ago – and being replaced by Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, the question is, does this change the race, and who is now the favourite?

Trump’s to lose

The polls are now showing the race tightening considerably, and Republican Donald Trump and Harris running neck and neck in the “battle ground” – seven swing states that will decide the race for the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, most pundits are describing this race as Trump’s to lose. Although there’s a long way to go to November, he’s the favourite to win if he concentrates on three key issues. These are:

Inflation

Inflation is a major issue for the average American as it has an impact on their cost of living. Although inflation rates have come down these past few months, prices of food and especially housing are still extremely high. As Biden’s vice-president, Harris is in essence running as an incumbent. She will take responsibility, rightly or wrongly, for inflation and high prices that have characterised the Biden administration’s tenure.

Immigration

According to The Economist, migrant encounters at America’s southern border have surged during the Biden administration. There were nearly 2.5 million apprehensions at the border in fiscal year 2023 – a record. Polling from The Economist and YouGov suggests that 14% of registered voters view immigration as the most important issue facing the country, second only to inflation. Seeing as Biden had tasked Harris with investigating the root causes of migration, Republicans have jumped on this issue, calling her the administration’s “border tsar” and placing the blame for high levels of migration exclusively on her. Probably the biggest challenge of her campaign, in addition to the economy, will be not only to counter these claims, but, more importantly, to show voters that she has a ready, workable, and practical plan to fix the problem.

Crime

As California’s attorney-general in her past, Harris is similarly being blamed by Republicans for many of that state’s problems: homelessness, drugs, and crime. According to the Standford Institute for Economic Policy Research, California is losing population to Arizona and Texas at higher levels than ever before, including a greater share of college graduates and residents at all income levels. Although this is primarily due to the extremely high cost of housing, Republicans have been quick to put the blame on that state’s Democratic administration’s policies of high taxes and supposed softness on crime as the main reasons. Again, crime will be a key issue, and the Republicans will attempt to paint the problems of California as caused by Harris’s policies, and rightly or wrongly, that will become something she will have to counter.

Legitimacy

Harris has an issue with legitimacy. She never won any primaries either in 2020 or this time round, and is seen by many as having been appointed by the Democratic Party hierarchy to ensure stability. That will become an issue if the polls turn against her.

Trump going off script

However, just as Trump has key issues of Harris’s to exploit, he also has his weaknesses. His main weakness is that he is seen by many Americans as dangerously unstable, rash, impulsive, and even a danger to American democracy. Harris will push all those buttons, including of course the issue that he has been convicted, and he and many of his staff are still being charged for many more misdemeanours, including trying to overturn the 2020 election. Also, now that Biden has withdrawn, suddenly Trump becomes the oldest candidate ever to run for president, and Harris will make his age an issue. Trump has to respond to this by “staying presidential” and sticking to the big issues described above. If he goes off script and starts insulting Harris, women, and other minority groups, he will not only upset the majority of voters, but the unstable and unhinged descriptions will start to stick, and he’ll lose the election.

According to reports, his staffers keep coaching him to focus on the issues and not make things personal. However, Trump is Trump, and he’s not an easy person to keep to the script. He does tend to lose it at times, and then all bets are off!

As The Economist concludes, Republican strategists are trying to portray a kinder, gentler form of Trump and Trumpism, and this was also the strategy on display at the national Republican convention, as they tried to consolidate their candidate’s then lead by toning down extremism and welcome “never-Trumpers” back into the tent. However, that’s not a natural position for Trump, and he clearly didn’t stick to it for long. Republicans need to make it acceptable for non-Republicans to vote Republican. But only the face of the party, and its leader, Trump, can make that happen. Trump’s unpredictable and erratic behaviour, or lack thereof, will ultimately decide this election. If he loses control, he will very likely also lose the election, rather than Harris winning it.

Harry Joffe is a Johannesburg tax and trust attorney.