In tumultuous world, Jews vote with their feet

Last September, I wandered among the hundreds, if not thousands, of graves at the Jewish cemetery in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The country’s third-largest city is located on the ancient Silk Road, where a Jewish presence has been documented since the 12th century AD. In 1989, as the Soviet Union began to collapse, Samarkand had 35 000 Jewish residents. Today, there are fewer than 100, and the local synagogue is able to muster a minyan only when enough tourists are in town. Like Uzbekistan, many other Jewish communities experienced significant depopulation between 1970 and the present, driven by major political, social, and economic changes that resulted in mass migration.

Today, 85% of the 15.16 million Jews worldwide live in either the United States (US) or Israel, but this is a relatively recent phenomenon. On the eve of the Holocaust in 1939, 70% of the then 16.5 million Jews were concentrated in the US, Poland, and the Soviet Union, the only countries home to at least one million Jews. Just 10 years later, five million Polish and Soviet Jews had been murdered. At the same time, the establishment of Israel and mass immigration from Europe and the Arab world caused Israel’s Jewish population to balloon from less than half a million in 1939 to 2.5 million by 1970. The largest Jewish communities were now in the US, Soviet Union, Israel, and France, the latter of which had risen to nearly half a million, partly due to mass Jewish immigration from North Africa in the 1960s.

As exemplified by Uzbekistan, the biggest shock to Jewish world demography was the fall of the Iron Curtain. Nearly two million Jews emigrated from the former Soviet Union, emptying the present countries of Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania of at least 90% of their Jewish populations. In 1970, the Soviet Union had the second-largest Jewish population at 2.62 million. Today, the Russian Federation ranks seventh, having lost 80% of its Jewish population, with only 150 000 Jews remaining. Other countries that lost 80% or more of their Jewish populations between 1970 and the present include Iran, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Romania.

Although there was a significant decline in Jewish populations in many countries from 1970 to 2021, there were also stories of growth. The most dramatic increase occurred in Germany, whose Jewish population grew nearly 300% between 1970 and 2021, largely due to the immigration of more than 200 000 Jews from the former Soviet Union to what had been a post-World War II community of just 30 000. Today, nine in 10 Jews in Germany speak Russian, and the country continues to receive newcomers from Israel.

Israel’s Jewish population grew 166% between 1970 and 2021, and today, 17% of Israel’s Jewish population was born in the former Soviet Union. Australia grew by more than 80% during the same period, largely due to the influx of nearly 30 000 Jewish immigrants from South Africa, the former Soviet Union, and Israel.

In 1970, South Africa had 118 000 Jews, while Australia had just 65 000. Today, the situation has reversed: Australia now has 118 000 Jews, while South Africa’s population has shrunk to 52 000, a decrease of nearly 60%. Similarly, Turkey has lost nearly 63% of its Jewish population since 1970 due to political changes that have made Jews uncertain about their future in the country.

Once sizeable Jewish communities in Latin America continue to shrink, primarily due to security and economic concerns. The 1970s was the era of the rise of military dictatorships in countries with large Jewish communities such as Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. Since then, Argentina has lost nearly 40% of its Jewish population, while Chile and Uruguay have each lost nearly 50%. While many immigrated to Israel, tens of thousands settled in more stable North and Central American countries like the US, Panama, and Mexico. Smaller communities in Colombia and Venezuela, which had between 10 000 and 12 000 Jews in 1970, have faced periods of extreme political instability and violence, reducing their Jewish populations to only a few thousand each today.

Two years ago, I co-chaired a trip for young professionals to Miami, where we explored the impact of the tens of thousands of Latin American Jewish immigrants on Jewish life. We visited the Michael-Ann Russell Jewish Community Center in North Miami Beach, where more than 80% of its members are from Latin America. Right next door, the Brazilian Jewish community was building its own synagogue. Country clubs and sport forms an integral part of Latin American Jewish life, and these immigrants have recreated their institutions in their new countries of residence.

Just last month, I was in Panama, one of the few Jewish communities in Latin America that is growing. The community is more than 90% Sephardic, mostly of Syrian origin, but has recently become a magnet for Venezuelan Jewish immigrants, many of whom are of Moroccan descent. Ashkenazi Jews from other Latin American countries are also immigrating to Panama, which boasts several dozen kosher restaurants, is the only country outside of Israel to have had two Jewish heads of state, and whose capital city currently has a 37-year-old Jewish mayor.

Today, only 9% of Jews live in Europe, primarily concentrated in Western Europe, whose Jewish populations – apart from Germany – continue to decline. Rising antisemitism, right-wing populism, and the longer-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war could accelerate further demographic change on the continent. An indicator of European Jewish sentiment is that 38% of French Jews this year expressed the desire to immigrate to Israel.

When Jews get nervous about the future, they move in higher percentages than the general population. Today, 20% of Jews live outside their country of birth, compared to 3.6% of the global population. We aren’t living at the end of history, and given the tumultuous times we live in, we cannot predict the impact of wars in Europe and the Middle East on Jews’ sense of safety and opportunity. At the same time, further normalisation between Israel and the Gulf states and increased pressure on wealthy Asian countries with ageing workforces to encourage immigration could also lead to further demographic changes in the Jewish world.

For all you know, your great-grandchildren may be living in the thriving Jewish communities of Riyadh or Seoul.

• Dan Brotman is an immigration coach and is pursuing his Master of Science in International Migration and Public Policy at the London School of Economics. You can follow him on Instagram at @danbrotman.