A hobbled presidency awaits its fate

DANIEL SILKE

Ultimately, the release of the “State of Capture” report from the office of the Public Protector codifies a year of revelations, rumour and conjecture deeply embarrassing and potentially politically explosive. And those who sought interdicts to prevent the report’s publication were always going to be the big losers – and they sure were.

While the report largely describes ethical, procedural and possible legal contraventions from a variety of Cabinet ministers, aspects of State Owned Enterprise (Eskom) abuse and the undue influence exercised by the Gupta family and their surrogates – it does not finger President Jacob Zuma directly.

The implication, though, is that the wrongdoing occurred under his watch and his omission to act in any opposition to the nefarious activities is tantamount to complicity. Given the role played by Zuma’s son, Duduzane, the President has indeed been compromised.

Furthermore, the linkage between the President and the Guptas in their efforts to place lackeys in senior Cabinet positions, implicates the President further in his illicit collaboration.

Politically, the report marks the end of the worst week of President Zuma’s presidency. It also serves to hasten his departure before his term of office expires (in 2019).

The report vindicates those within the ANC who have become more vocal in their opposition to Zuma and it confirms the view of civil society, the private sector and party stalwarts who have all coalesced in their desire for new leadership.

The report is also a damning indictment on the broader ANC caucus, the executive branch (Cabinet) and also the National Executive Committee (NEC) in being entirely derelict in their duty to hold their colleagues to account.

ANC Parliamentary Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu’s call for the entire NEC to resign was indeed an admission that the collective leadership that the ANC prides itself in, failed dismally.

As uncomfortable as President Zuma was before this report was released, his position is now under extreme strain. Former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela’s parting shot

of recommending a judicial commission of inquiry can uncover a raft of deeper irregularities that goes to the core of ethics, accountability and adherence to the laws of the land.

This means that the next six months will be dominated by a tainted President and three or more Cabinet ministers all under a cloud of mistrust. Politically, this can debilitate not only internal decision-making with a President now battling daily for his survival in office, but it can also retard the executive branch in their ability to initiate and implement policy.  

The negative effects of this is that South Africa now moves into an era of a lame-duck president largely hamstrung by his own transgressions and destroyed credibility. The Zuma brand now has little traction and his presidency – at least in the short-term – is likely to be politically impotent.

As if this is not enough, the internal firmament within the ANC is likely to gain pace. The cumulative effect of the Madonsela’s report alongside the Pravin Gordhan fraud debacle and the pending fraud charges against the President will embolden those keen to oust Zuma. Lacking in any gravitas and increasingly facing internal dissent, Zuma is hobbled. It’s an unedifying end to a highly controversial tenure as head-of-state.

Zuma has few choices. He has been a master of prevarication and obfuscation and may well choose to ramble on as compromised as he may be, playing political football with the law. Should he face the even worse fate of a judge recommending legal action, that might well be an indignity even he could not bear. He is caught now between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

In the interim, the ANC will bear the brunt of this malaise. It desperately needs to reinvigorate its political leadership and revitalise its ailing branch structures. It cannot leave this for another year as that affords both the DA and EFF a chance to further erode the ANC’s electoral base.

The “State of Capture” report is therefore a watershed in documenting the decline in governance at the highest level. While political accountability has never been part of the South African tradition, it may well be the final straw that breaks Zuma’s hold on the top job.

But, while South Africans increasingly see the demise of the Zuma era, there is still little consensus about what comes next. Leadership battles loom and policy uncertainty continues. This is a testing time for South Africa, but it does take us a step closer to the dawn of a new day of hope.