Amidst expanding war, what are the chances for peace?

A year after the 7 October brutal Hamas attack on southern Israel, the conflict has expanded to six other arenas as Islamist militants have been attacking Israel from Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and the West Bank. In April 2024, Iran joined the attacks directly, launching two waves of projectiles towards the Jewish state. The last one, comprising more than 180 ballistic missiles, was launched on 1 October 2024.

Israel responded by bombing targets on all fronts, and launching a ground assault into Lebanon in late September 2024. Israel also successfully targeted some of the leaders of these non-state militants, including Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and the head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh. As these lines are being written, Israel is considering how to respond to the latest Iranian attack.

Amidst what seems like an ever-expanding war, what are the chances for peace in the region? Though hard to see between the smoke and fire, there are perhaps a few rays of hope.

First, Israeli-Arab wars have usually been a prelude to a more stable arrangement. The most important breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations, the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace accord, was preceded by the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which thousands of Israelis and Arabs were killed. War, after all, is the ultimate reminder of the costs of not securing peace. Moreover, it alters the calculations of all parties and, through the crisis, opens new political possibilities. It further creates a space for a new narrative, or a fresh look at reality by the broad public, including a willingness to accept compromises that were unacceptable prior to war. For example, the missile barrage we are facing from Iran – situated 1 500 km from our borders – reminds us that the nature of the threat has changed and a new response is warranted. After the Iraqi missile barrage on Israel in 1991, many Israelis realised that holding on to an adjacent territory couldn’t protect Israel from missiles fired from such a great distance. This new mindset contributed to public support in Israel for a negotiated solution with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was secured by 1993. The missile attacks now were probably partially thwarted due to Israel’s alliance with the United States and relationships in the region. This is expected to create greater awareness of the importance of a regional alliance with other moderate actors in the region.

Second, despite the war, Israel’s peace accords and diplomatic relations in the region haven’t been severed. Israel still has peace accords and/or diplomatic relations with Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, South Sudan, and Sudan. One year into the conflict, the interests that drove these relationships are still strong enough to maintain them, despite Israel’s wars with other actors in the Middle East.

Third, the war, as well as the continued relationship with moderate Arab states, has brought into sharper focus the nature of the conflict. There is a broader clash in the region between a vision of militant political Islam as the solution for the internal challenges of states, and a vision of a pragmatic, often state-run, moderate version of Islam. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an arena, maybe even a side arena, of this broader conflict. For militants, it presents an opportunity to weaken some Arab regimes by criticising their governments for their relations with Israel. This internal Arab-Muslim dynamic further suggests that new alliances could be created, most notably between Israel and the moderate Arab states. Down the road, this could further open the path for deeper mutual acceptance. The UAE has perhaps taken this latter vision most seriously as it pertains to the Israeli-Arab conflict. In February 2023, it inaugurated the Abrahamic Family House, which hosts a church, a mosque, and a synagogue, a vivid reminder of the common elements of the three religions. It’s a model that shows these faiths can live in harmony and aren’t bound to be in everlasting conflict.

Fourth, wars also open new lines of communication. The clash often brings practical issues that require interaction between belligerents: the need to co-ordinate humanitarian assistance to affected populations, prisoner exchanges, and messages about red lines. These aren’t grand political moves, but they create an opportunity for enemies to communicate.

Finally, the war is unfolding in a region that shows broader signs of easing of tensions. The two large civil wars that haunted the region in the previous decade – in Syria and in Libya – have subsided. Turkey, which had a confrontational posture for much of the 2010s, has reached out to numerous actors in the region, including its rival, Egypt, in an effort to reconcile and co-operate. Numerous Arab countries, most notably Saudi Arabia, are reforming their own societies and prefer not to expend resources on unnecessary external conflicts. Indeed, Saudi Arabia and Iran, mortal foes at times, have resumed diplomatic relations.

It’s not easy, perhaps impossible, to chart a clear path between these hopeful perspectives and a stable, peaceful Middle East. Moreover, the region is dynamic, and some of these trends are tentative and fragile.

In order to chart a clear path for peace, the region requires brave and visionary leadership and effective international support. This will be particularly challenging, as the United States, the most important international actor in the region, enters a highly polarising election season.

Yet, as we welcome the new year, we’re reminded that our national anthem is Hatikvah, “The Hope”. Yes, the horizon is challenging, but it was hope that carried us thus far, and it is hope that will carry us forward. Amidst the pain and smoke, some broad structural features may offer a better year, all this while looking truthfully at existing reality. After all, as Baruch Spinoza wrote in The Ethics, “There’s neither hope without fear, nor fear without hope.”

• Dr Ehud (Udi) Eiran is senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Haifa and former assistant foreign policy advisor to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak.