As Ukraine war grinds on, world feels the chill

Exactly a year ago, on 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Well, it reinvaded. It had been conducting military operations in eastern Ukraine unabated since 2014. Russia’s “annexation” of Crimea was recognised by only nine countries, including Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. On the anniversary of the current invasion, it’s important to look back at the major effects of this war around the world, including on South Africa and Israel.

On the ground, it has been violent and devastating. According to the Embassy of Ukraine in South Africa, Russian casualties in this war amount to about 142 000 people. The embassy also said Russia had lost 3 310 tanks, 6 545 all-purpose vehicles, 298 aircraft, 287 helicopters, and 18 warships or boats in the past year. According to the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR), about 7 100 Ukrainians have been killed with more than 11 000 injured. The UNHCR also said about 19% of the Ukrainian population had been displaced, about 18.6 million had left the country, and 10.3 million had returned to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s infrastructure has been laid waste by Russian bombardment, with electricity supply in the freezing winter months especially targeted. Ukrainians have remained resilient and determined to fight for their freedom and sovereignty. Arms supplied by Western states, particularly members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have certainly helped, as Russia launches a new spring offensive. To the surprise of many, Ukraine wasn’t overrun in days by a Russian blitzkrieg. With both sides still convinced they can win on the battlefield, negotiations look a long way off. This war is likely to continue throughout this year.

The conflict has also shown that not all countries see the world the same way. While Western states and their friends have condemned Russia, instituted tough sanctions, and sought to isolate the Kremlin, many in the Global South have tried to sit on the fence or supported the Kremlin. About half of all African states haven’t supported four Western-backed United Nations General Assembly votes on the conflict since March 2022, through either abstaining or not being present to vote.

They claimed they are non-aligned, not wanting to be drawn into someone else’s conflict. With this war pushing up the global prices of fuel, fertiliser, and food, no region has remained unaffected. Africa has borne the brunt more than others. This posture of non-alignment is South Africa’s official line, and indeed, it has supported its BRICS partner Russia and abstained on all four UN General Assembly votes. South Africa has hosted senior Russian and American diplomats in the past six months.

But increasingly, it looks like Pretoria has taken sides. Apart from a single statement calling on Russia to remove its troops from Ukraine on the first day of the war, South Africa has refused to condemn Russia. Senior government and military officials toasted the Russian invasion at a party on 24 February 2022. The defence minister attended a security conference in Russia last August. And from 17 to 27 February 2023, South Africa is conducting naval exercises with Russia and China off the KwaZulu-Natal coast. These combat drills will coincide with the anniversary of the invasion and will attract a lot of attention to South Africa. The government has maintained that these exercises are an expression of sovereignty, and that South Africa will choose its friends as it sees fit. It’s likely that Russia will use them as a massive propaganda opportunity to show that it’s not isolated or crippled by Western sanctions.

Israel, too, has trodden carefully. It’s home to more than a million Russian-speakers, many making aliya in the 1990s as communism crumbled. There are deep family ties with Jews remaining in both Ukraine and Russia. Before his brief stay on the opposition benches, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Russian President Vladimir Putin more than any other world leader. After Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict in 2015, it has been important for Israel to keep in Russia’s good books as Israel co-ordinates attacks on Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. This made former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reluctant to call out Putin, while his then-foreign minister, Yair Lapid, was more publicly supportive of Ukraine’s plight, and more so once he became prime minister. Israel was playing a delicate double game.

Iran supplying arms to Russia has further muddied the waters, but Israel has consistently refused to give or sell weapons to Ukraine. The new right-wing Israeli government has said it would “talk less” on the conflict, and Netanyahu has stated he would consider a mediation role if asked by both sides.

Not to be forgotten is how Israel took in more than 15 000 new olim from Ukraine since the start of the war, according to The Jerusalem Post. They are mainly women and children as fighting-age men are conscripted to the Ukrainian army. About 28 charter flights carrying Ukrainian olim have arrived in Israel. It has also received thousands of olim from Russia in this period.

The conflict has jolted the international system. The UN Charter has been abrogated by Russia invading a sovereign state. Does this mean that other aggrieved countries can simply redraw borders through force, unprovoked, in future? The UN Security Council has been deadlocked due to the rivalry between the West and Russia and China for several years. This is now exacerbated by one of the veto-wielding countries – Russia – being a belligerent. Russia has accused the West of egregious double-standards.

As this war grinds on with no end in sight, the world will continue to feel the blowback.

• Steven Gruzd is an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs. He writes in his personal capacity.