AUBREY KATZEFF

Safe for Bibi

With just over a week to go before the elections, the polls are showing that the Zionist Camp will just pip Likud by one or two seats to be the largest party.

By way of introduction the 2013 election results were:  

• Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu – 31 seats
• Labour – 15
• Habayit Hayehudi – 12
• Shas – 11
• Yesh Atid (Lapid) – 19
• United Torah Judaism – 7
• Livni – 6
• Meretz – 6
• Kadima – 2
• Arab Parties – 11

But much has changed in the two years since then. Kadimah has disappeared and Shas has split. Avigdor Lieberman wondered off towards the left and then suddenly appeared as an extreme right-winger.

For those who are uninitiated about Israeli politics the parties represented may be defined as:

The Right Wing Parties

LIKUD who at the last election ran on a joint list with Yisrael Biteinu, are the largest party. At the last election they fared rather badly receiving 18 seats as against 42 in the previous election. The current polls reflect them as obtaining 22/23 seats, behind the Labour/Hatnua joint list which is now named the Zionist Camp. The polls predict them obtaining 23/4 seats. Many Israelis don’t like the leader of Likud, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu but on the other hand many other voters are of the opinion that there is no-one else who is suitable to be Prime-Minister. Another factor is that this time around Likud will be running on the own and history has shown that the voters don’t like joint lists. Likud is expected to see a major increase their seats.

HABAYIT HAYEHUDI who merged with the National Union did extremely well at the last election increasing their tally from 7 to 11.  This can be attributed to the leadership of the young and dynamic Naftali Bennett. Two years down the line his reputation has grown and many on the right prefer Habayit Yehudi to Likud. At the last election Likud concentrated on attacking Bennett and his party and this cost both parties votes. This won’t happen again.

OTZMA LEYISRAEL regarded as extreme right wing did not make the cut but received about 60 000 votes. They are running under the name Yahad with Rabbi Yishai who split from Shas the Sephardic religious party. This could be useful because running separately they won’t have sufficient votes to cross the minimum threshold (which has been increased to 3.25% of the vote) to be able to sit in the Knesset. Baruch Marzel regarded by the media as an extreme right winger is expected to enter the Knesset on this list.

The Religious Parties

The polls are more or less as expected, 7 seats for each of SHAS and UNITED TORAH JUDAISM. As I wrote at the time of the last election one wonders why, with the large birth rates amongst the religious, their share of the vote has not over the years increased. This perhaps can be attributed to the fact that many Haredim (eg The Satmars) do not vote and that many who should vote for Shas, voted instead for Likud.

The break away by Rabbi Yishai because of a dispute with Rabbi Deri may cost Shas one seat and they are unlikely to get more than 6 or 7 seats.

The Left Wing Parties

The left which had disintegrated into factions determined by personality and not policies seemed to have got their act together under YITZHACK HERTZOG, a son of the former President of Israel Chaim Hertzog and a grandson of the first Chief Rabbi of Israel. He has formed an alliance with Tzippi Livni of HATNUA and will run on a joint list called the ZIONIST CAMP.

The polls predict they will obtain 24 seats. My view has been that many of the voters because they do not like one of the parties on the joint list will move their vote to another party. In the case of LABOUR to MERETZ and in the case of LIVNI to YESH ATID.  

Livni, before she founded HATUNUA was prepared to join LABOUR on the condition that the then-leader of Labour, Sheli Yachimowich, agree to a rotating premiership. When Yachimowich declined the suggestion Livni formed Hatnua. HATNUA, like KADIMA of old, managed to attract fugitives from other parties (eg PERETZ and MITZNER from LABOUR).

Now that Hertzog is prepared to allow for the rotating Prime Minister, Livni is prepared to stand on a joint list with Labour. The polls predict 24 seats for LABOUR/LIVNI.

MERETZ have their supporters who vote for them through thick or thin. When the left don’t like what’s going on in LABOUR they shift to MERETZ. This year with a chance that the ZIONIST CAMP ticket may be the largest party there will be strategic voting on the left and MERETZ will suffer because of this. They may only receive 5 seats but on the other hand their supporters may be of the opinion that MERETZ will have to be part of a left-wing coalition and thus may still vote for Meretz  

Interestingly, LIVNI has requested only 3 seats in the combined slate

The Centre Parties

The centre is becoming a bit crowded. Firstly YESH ATTID led by Yair Lapid has had its 15 minutes of fame. Lapid found that being in Government is not easy and was not able to meet most of his election promises. Last time around he got 19 seats this time the polls reflect 13. 

When I started writing this article I regarded YISRAEL BEITEINU lead by Lieberman as a centre party because although professing to be a right winger he has lately been expressing left wing views. He has dropped from his election list some very able MKs whose views are now regarded by him as too right wing. However he has now stated that he would not join a left-wing dominated coalition.

The new kid on the block is KOOLANA lead by Moshe Kahalon – a former cabinet minister from Likud whose major achievement was to break the cell-phone cartel and reduce charges most dramatically. He is expected to get 7 seats. Kahalon, if he continues in his previous cabinet positions, may make a big difference to the socio-economic situation by breaking up other cartels and reducing the cost of living.

The Arab Parties.

With a minimum requirement of 3 seats to get into the Knesset the Arab parties will have to run together and I believe that this is what they will be doing. As such they may even pick up an extra seat and will get 12 seats.

So with just over a week to go to the election, my predictions will be that the blocs represented in the Knesset are likely to be:

• Right wing – 42
• Religious – 12
• Centre Right – 12
• Left/Centre-left – 31
• Arab Parties – 13

The right, centre right and religious parties together would then have just over 55 percent of the seats. The left and centre-left would have 45 percent and the Arab parties 10 percent.

Should this be the case, Netenyahu should be able to put together a comfortable coalition.

• Aubrey Katzeff is a Cape Town attorney who has a CA, BProc and an Honours degree in Jewish Studies. Aubrey is a dedicated Zionist and been involved in Jewish Communal affairs and various communal bodies his whole life, including the Gitlin Library in Cape Town. Aubrey has been an Israeli Election pundit for many years and his predictions are seldom off the mark – when they are, it is by a very small margin.