AUBREY KATZEFF

Israel Elections 2015

President Obama was opposed to the Netanyahu appearance in Washington because he was of the opinion it was meant to enhance his chances in the Israeli elections to be held in less than two weeks’ time. The polls show that although the speech was well received by Israeli voters it did not make much difference to how they intended to vote.

This did not surprise me as the Iran issue is not high on the voters agenda (but important to Israel). Israelis are more concerned about the high cost of living, availability of housing and to a much lesser extent the peace process.

The current polls are showing that the Zionist Camp and Likud are running neck and neck and they might end up as a tie to be the largest party.

Last election I was out on the results because of the big upset, that of Yesh Atid winning 19 seats but then so were the polls. With such a short time to go, this is the time where I would like to record my prediction. 

The previous results are in brackets

• Likud – 24 (18)
• Zionist Camp/Labour/Hatn – 23 (20)
• Habayit Hayehudi – 13 (11)
• Shas – 6 (13)
• Yesh Atid (Lapid) – 11 (19)
• Koolanu – 8 (0)
• Yisrael Beiteinu – 7 (13)
• United Torah Judaism – 7 (7)
• Meretz – 5 (6)
• Kadima – 0 (2)
• Arab Parties – 12 (11)
• Yahad – 4 (0)

Winners and losers

My prediction is that Yisrael Beiteinu -6, Yesh Atid -8, Shas -7 will be the big losers. The major gains will be made by Koolanu which is a new party which should obtain 8 seats. Likud should gain 6 seats and the Zionist Union 3 seats. Likud’s gain could even be larger and the reason I say this is that there are 13 Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas right wing seats up for grabs.

Let me set out how I arrived at the above figures.

LIKUD: At the last elections I expressed my opinion that the joint list with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu would hurt Likud. Israeli voters do not like joint lists. They want to know who they are voting for and I don’t believe that Lieberman delivered as many voters as Likud thought he would. Likud have always had a solid base of traditional supporters who support them through thick and thin. There are also non-Likudnicks who believe that there is no other alternative to Netanyahu as Prime Minister and will vote for him rather than see Herzog/Livni as the next Prime Minister.

ZIONIST CAMP: I personally believe that the name is a chutspa as if they are the only Zionists around. I don’t believe that Labour can any longer attract the unaffiliated and that is why they will not gain many additional seats. Their additional seats will come from the die-hard Livni fans who believe that she is the only person who can make peace with the Palestinians and the strategic voting by anti-Netanyahu voters who would like to see the ZC as the biggest party and thus able to have the first chance at forming a government.

HABAYIT HAYEHUDI: This strongly nationalist religious party is led by the charismatic Naftali Bennett is not expected to increase its representation in the Knessett but I differ with the polls. The settler movement is right behind him and I believe that he will also attract a certain amount of right wing secular voters who do not trust Netanyahu. The polls do not reflect an increase of seats but they too may gain from ex Yisrael Beiteinu voters

YESH ATID: was the surprise at the last election but its leader was a disappointment to the non-affiliated voters. He failed to deliver on election promises and has lost much of support base to Koolanu. Also some of his voters may vote for the Zionist Camp as set out above. Although the polls reflect 13 seats I will be much surprised if they achieve this.

KOOLANU: This new party is headed by Moshe Kahlon a former Likud cabinet minister and as I wrote in my previous article he broke up the cell phone cartel and this is what the voters want more of. He is firmly behind Netanyahu.

YISRAEL BEITEINU AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN: early in the election campaign wondered off towards the left and when he saw the negative reaction of the voters suddenly appeared as an extreme right-winger. He is only popular with the Russian segment of the population and I am of the opinion that most of the gain for Likud will come from this party.

YAHAD INCLUDING OTZMA LEYISRAEL AND OTHERS: are a strange grouping consisting of those that broke away from Shas, the remnants of Kadima and extreme right wing settlers. This is a case where a joint list works. If they stood as individual parties they would not receive the minimum of 3.25% of the vote to get into the Knesset but running together they will get 4 seats. They will support pro-Netanyahu government.

THE RELIGIOUS PARTIES: As I wrote last time one wonders why, with the large birth rates amongst the religious, their share of the vote has not over the years increased. This perhaps can be attributed to the fact that many Haredim (eg The Satmars) do not vote and that many who should vote for Shas, voted  instead for Likud. The break away by Rabbi Yishai because of a dispute with Rabbi Deri may cost Shas one or two seats and they are unlikely to get more than 6 or 7 seats.

MERETZ: will suffer because of strategic voting with their loss being the Zionist Camps gain but they have their supporters who vote for them through thick or thin. I expect them to lose between 1 and 2 seats.

THE ARAB PARTIES: This is another case where a joint list will work. With a minimum requirement of 3.25% of the vote and 4 seats to get into the Knesset the Arab parties are running together on a joint list. As such they may even pick up an extra seat and will get 12 seats.

THE RIGHT, CENTRE RIGHT AND RELIGIOUS: together have about 57.5% of the seats. The left and centre left 32.5% and the Arab parties 10%.Netenyahu should be able to put together a comfortable coalition. However as much as he would like to avoid a right-centre right and religious parties coalition I don’t see him having much choice. All the left wing and centre left parties have said that they would not join a Netanyahu led coalition but I have seen stranger things happen.

If the LEFT AND CENTER-LEFT parties surprise and win a larger number of seats I fail to see how they will be able to form a coalition. MERETZ AND YESH ATID will not join a coalition with SHAS AND UNITED TORAH so look forward to another Bibi Netanyahu government.

• Aubrey Katzeff is a Cape Town attorney who has a CA, BProc and an Honours degree in Jewish Studies. Aubrey is a dedicated Zionist and been involved in Jewish Communal affairs and various communal bodies his whole life, including the Gitlin Library in Cape Town. Aubrey has been an Israeli Election pundit for many years and his predictions are seldom off the mark – when they are, it is by a very small margin.