Be vigilant, but don’t panic, security experts say

The Community Security Organisation (CSO) is taking the United States government’s security alert about a possible terrorist attack in Joburg seriously, but has made it clear there’s no reason to panic.

On Wednesday, 26 October, the US government issued an alert, warning that it had “received information that terrorists may be planning to conduct an attack targeting large gatherings of people at an unspecified location in the greater Sandton area of Johannesburg, South Africa, on 29 October 2022.

“There’s no further information regarding the timing, method, or target of the potential attack,” the warning said. “The US embassy has advised staff to avoid crowds of people and other large public gatherings in the greater Sandton area of Johannesburg during the weekend of 29-30 October 2022.”

Says Jevon Greenblatt, the CSO’s head of operations in Gauteng, “Every indication is that this threat shouldn’t be taken lightly. Although we don’t have any information that the Jewish community is the target, we cannot rule this out, and are taking necessary steps to ensure that our community is secure.

“The CSO will communicate further with any relevant updates,” he said. “We urge the community not to panic, but out of an abundance of caution, to exercise vigilance when out and about in public and crowded places.”

Ryan Cummings, the director for Africa-focused political and security risk-management consultancy Signal Risk, says, “In terms of Jewish interests in South Africa, I think it’s notable that in some dismantled terrorist plots that we’ve witnessed to date, specifically involving the Thulsie twins, Jewish interests were cited as a target. In the South African context, our Jewish community is facing a discriminated and elevated threat.

“I advise the Jewish community not to panic, just to remain vigilant. Travel to Sandton at this stage should be limited to essential purposes only.

“Large-scale public gatherings should be avoided because that’s among the higher-profile targets for attack. Be vigilant around places of worship, schools, and other facilities associated with the Jewish community.

“We need to realise that foreign governments, specifically the US, generally issue security messages of this nature in response to receiving of some form of intelligence specifying a specific threat which could potentially place their citizens or nationals in danger of being targeted in acts of violence.”

In addition, “South Africa has been at a heightened threat of Islamist extremist attacks, particularly since we started engaging in the war in neighbouring Mozambique. ISIS [Islamic State] warned in July 2020 that it would target South Africa in acts of retributive violence if we engaged in the war, and that threat should be seen as credible.”

Security expert Jasmine Opperman said that the US had no choice but to issue such a warning when it received intelligence of a possible terror attack targeting its institutions or US citizens. “This is a legal requirement according to US diplomatic protocol. I see this statement as an obligation [to reveal] that vague information has been received, but is such an attack actually on the cards?

“If one looks at recent trends related to terrorism, there are simply no red flags indicating that such an attack is a high probability,” she says. “A terror attack can occur any place in the world at any time, but when it comes to Johannesburg or Sandton, it’s always an area that gets attention. The presence of the US embassy in Sandton adds fuel, so I do understand the warning, but I don’t have any information corroborating that such an attack is imminent.

“The alert is specific when it comes to the date. Why isn’t it specific when it comes to the other details?” Opperman asks. “I think we should acknowledge that an alert has been issued as part of protocol, but we shouldn’t go into crazy conspiracy theories. There’s simply no indication at this point in time directing us towards such an attack.”

Willem Els, senior training co-ordinator at the Institute for Security Studies says, “The US embassy, and for that matter any other embassy, normally issues these kind of warnings as a precaution in service to its citizens. They normally work in close co-operation with local intelligence and crime-intelligence services. They wouldn’t issue such a warning if they didn’t have credible information due to the implications on the local communities and economy. But to them, safety comes first.

“When these warnings are issued, local authorities and services normally follow up and investigate and try to prevent any such event,” says Els. “The local community should be diligent, and it should enhance situational awareness. Be on the lookout for anything or anyone out of place, and so on.

“It’s also important that people should restrict movement and attendance of events where large crowds gather, as these areas will be natural targets. The key is not to panic. Should anything happen and people are caught up in a situation, depending on the type of situation, they should try to remain calm, act rationally, and listen to the instructions of the security personnel on the scene.”

“This isn’t new, the threat remains. South Africa is extremely vulnerable because the South African government looks the other way,” says Hussein Solomon, senior professor of political studies and governance at the University of the Free State. “That area in Johannesburg, including the embassy and the stock exchange, is always a target. Our intelligence services are in a terrible state, being highly politicised and generally incompetent, resulting in this being wide open.”

Says Professor Karen Milner, the national chairperson of the South African Jewish Board of Deputies, “We’re engaging with the relevant local security authorities and will remain in close contact with them. We’re monitoring the situation together with the CSO, and will advise the community accordingly. The notice was issued by the US government with the full knowledge of the South African government. We urge the community to abide by any warnings put out to the public in general, and any specific warnings that may be relevant to the Jewish community.”

For any emergency, suspicious activity, or potential threats specifically related to the Jewish community or Jewish installations, contact the CSO on 086 18 000 18.