AUBREY KATZEFF

With the election just a day away there are a number of polls which are showing that a gap of five seats has opened up between the ZIONIST CAMP (Labour + Livni) and LIKUD. The media has reported that Likud are panicking.

This may be a blessing in disguise as it may galvanise the LIKUD supporters to get out and vote.

I personally do not share the view that the ZIONIST CAMP will be the largest party and my reasons are simple. The polls reflect the ZIONIST CAMP gaining about six extra seats. But from whom? Let’s look at the gainers and losers, but first let’s recap on the various groupings:

• LEFT WING: Zionist Camp and Meretz;
• RIGHT WING: Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Bayit Hayehudi, and Yachad;
• RELIGIOUS PARTIES: Shas and United Torah;
• CENTRE: Yesh Atid (left-leaning) and Kulanu (right-leaning); and
• ARAB JOINT LIST.

The ZIONIST CAMP will have to gain their extra nine seats from either the left or the centre. MERETZ are predicted to retain their six seats but if their voters believe that it will be better to support a larger left wing party, they will only receive five seats. This has happened in the past when Meretz voters supported KADIMAH to avoid LIKUD becoming the bigger party. In that election they won only three seats. YESH ATID is expected to lose eight seats.

In the CENTRE there is the new party KULANU headed by the former Likud cabinet minister Moshe Kahlon. They are expected to obtain eight seats. Two of these may come from the OLD KADIMA, maybe one from LIKUD but at least fove or six from YESH ATID. As mentioned in a previous article many of the centre voters are unhappy with Yair Lapid the leader of Yesh Atid and are more likely to vote for Kahlon.

Kahlon, when he was the Minister of Communications, broke up the cell phone cartels and as a result cell phone charges in Israel were dramatically reduced – hence his popularity. If five or six of the YESH ATID seats are expected to go to KULANU then there will only be two or three available to the ZIONIST CAMP. I don’t see them getting them from the right or religious parties.

So where is the ZIONIST CAMP going to get the other three or four seats from?

Let’s look at the RIGHT’s GAINS and LOSSES. Lieberman’s YISRAEL BEITEINU is expected to give up eight seats and SHAS four. I predict that these seats will be shared between LIKUD (4); YACHAD (4), and BAYIT YEHUDI (2).

There may be some realignment which will give LABOUR an extra seat and the JOINT ARAB LIST also an extra seat.

My prediction remains basically unchanged but I will have to consider the latest polls which have increased the ZIONIST CAMP to 25 seats, a majority of two. But I just don’t see where they will get the extra five seats from.

I expect the next Knesset to comprise of the following:

RIGHT WING: Likud 23, Bayit Yehudi 12, Yisrael Beiteinu 5, Yachad 4 for a total of 44 seats

CENTRE RIGHT: Koolanu 8

RELIGIOUS: Shas 6, United Torah 7

CENTRE LEFT: Yesh Atid 12

LEFT: Zionist Camp 25, Meretz 5

ARAB JOINT LIST: 13

There are, however, a number of factors which may prove me wrong. These are:

1. That the Arab voters will turn out in greater numbers to support their Joint List which could increase their proportionate representation from 11 to 13 seats. This would leave two less seats for the remaining parties.

2. That voters are tired for yet another election and do not vote. This could allow a more energized Zionist Camp to gain a few extra seats.

Bibi-led coalition on the cards

However this will not stop Netanyahu putting together a right wing and religious coalition consisting of 65 seats with a left and centre opposition of 42 and Arab parties of 13.

However, come what may I just don’t see the religious parties sitting in the same coalition with Meretz and Yesh Atid.

• Aubrey Katzeff is a Cape Town attorney who has a CA, BProc and an Honours degree in Jewish Studies. Aubrey is a dedicated Zionist and been involved in Jewish Communal affairs and various communal bodies his whole life, including the Gitlin Library in Cape Town. Aubrey has been an Israeli Election pundit for many years and his predictions are seldom off the mark – when they are, it is by a very small margin.