Can a changing Middle East curb Islamic extremism?

Will Israel’s normalisation of relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain and warming ties with African states counter extremist Muslim ideology in the Middle East?

This was the question posed by Dr Seth J Frantzman in a Zoom event organised by the South African Zionist Federation and World Zionist Organisation on 30 September. Frantzman is Middle East correspondent at the Jerusalem Post, and executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis.

“Since 1948, Israel has struggled to have diplomatic relations with the Arab and Muslim world,” Frantzman said. This is partly a function of how the state was born, and the colonial powers of Britain and France quitting the region abruptly. The solid relations Israel once had with African countries withered in the wake of the 1967 and 1973 wars. Currently, about 30 countries worldwide don’t recognise Israel.

“There emerged a consensus that Israel would have to make concessions for peace” said Frantzman, such as in the Saudi-sponsored Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. “We don’t hear this logic in other conflicts, such as India-Pakistan or Greece-Turkey over Cyprus.

“The Trump administration is rewriting a more than 20-year-old paradigm,” Frantzman said. “The 1993 Oslo Accords were premised on a withdrawal from the territories for peace, but Trump has turned this on its head.” Trump has proved willing to throw away decades of United States foreign policy concepts, chief among them that there will be no normalisation without peace with the Palestinians. “Trump’s approach has been pragmatic and practical – he likes doing deals.”

Frantzman noted that since the 1990s, the Saudis and other Gulf States had drastically decreased their support for extremist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. They are now promoting tolerance and coexistence. This has moved them closer to the US – and Israel – as a counter to Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. Egypt, Iraq, and Syria are no longer the predominant powers in the Arab world, as all are now focused on internal problems. The twin powers today are Iran and Saudi Arabia.

“The Palestinians are divided [between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestine Liberation Organisation in the West Bank], the Gulf is divided. The whole region is divided, and riddled with proxy conflicts.”

Frantzman said the historic accords signed with the UAE and Bahrain last month – with Saudi Arabia’s blessing – may give these countries more leverage to push for a resolution of the Palestinian question. The peace could potentially be warmer than with Egypt and Jordan on a people-to-people level. Beyond the Gulf States, Frantzman speculated that there might be potential for recognition from Bangladesh, Brunei, Djibouti, Malaysia, and Pakistan in the offing.

In February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Uganda, his fifth trip to Africa since 2016. There, he held exploratory talks with Sudan, a country seeking to be removed from the US’s terrorist list and an end to sanctions. He also met the leadership of Chad to explore diplomatic recognition.

When asked what a Joe Biden White House may mean for the Middle East, Frantzman said Biden was unlikely to be as pro-Israel as Trump. “He may soften on Iran a bit, but be tougher on Turkey.”

Frantzman is the author of After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East. He recounted how the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which had its roots in Al Qaeda, sprung up in 2013-2014. It captured large swaths of territory, and declared a caliphate – a new state to be run under Sharia law. “It was extremism on steroids,” Frantzman mused. “They beheaded journalists and perpetrated a genocide on the minority Yazidis. It took one day for ISIS to capture the city of Mosul, and nine months to remove them.”

He noted how radicals from all over the world were attracted to fight for ISIS, and many have returned to their countries, posing a threat of violence. “But ISIS was defeated by fellow Muslims, including the Kurds, and not by Europeans.”

ISIS is active across the Sahel in northern Africa, in ungoverned, unstable areas. “It radicalises people when the government is weak.”

Frantzman said South Africa should take the insurgency in northern Mozambique extremely seriously. “You can’t let the Mozambican state be destroyed and melt away. South Africa has one of the strongest armies in the region and should seek to destroy these groups with the support of other states. ISIS is like an octopus crossed with a snake – its deadly fangs and tentacles keep growing.”