Countdown to the Israeli elections

AUBREY KATZEF

The first big shock in the run up to election was Naftali Bennett leaving HaBayit HaYehudi, the party he headed. Then, there was the arrival on the scene of former General Benny Gantz and his subsequent joining forces with Moshe Ya’alon and Yair Lapid to form the Blue and White Party.

Bibi Netanyahu pushed to have the Otzma Yehudit (extreme far-right) join with HaBayit HaYehudi and the National Union (an alliance of right-wing nationalist parties) to form The United Right List. And then came the announcement of the intention to indict Netanyahu.

What effect is all of this going to have on the election results?

Anyone in Israel who didn’t realise that Netanyahu would be indicted must be living in another world. It’s been going on for years. Yet the polls still insist that Likud will obtain 29-32 seats in the Knesset. Although Blue and White is expected to achieve 34-36 seats, it won’t be at the expense of the right-wing parties.

The old Zionist Union (centre-left political alliance) which held 24 seats in the current Knesset and is now participating in the elections as Labour, is expected to obtain somewhere in the six to eight range. Unlike the parties which are just extensions of some individual politician, Likud is a party with branches across the country. Although it benefits from leaders who are popular (with the right-wing), like Netanyahu, it has other well liked candidates such as Ze’ev Elkin, Yisrael Katz, Miri Regev, and Tzipi Hotovely, who are all cabinet ministers. Gideon Sa’ar and former Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat are also vote catchers. So, it doesn’t appear that Netanyahu’s indictment is going to lose Likud votes. If it does, these will go to the right, and not to the centre or left.

The polls predict that Blue and White will win the most seats, and this can play an important role in helping right-wing voters decide how to vote. In the last election, it appeared that many of these voters answered Netanyahu’s last-minute call to support him so that Likud would be the largest party.

HaBayit HaYehudi, which held 12 seats in the 2013 election, was reduced to eight in the 2015 election. With Blue and White polling as many as six to eight seats more than Likud, there is no reason to abandon their favourite party and vote Likud. They can use their vote more profitably by voting for the marginal parties such as Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Shas (an ultra-orthodox religious party) and maybe Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut (libertarian Zionist) Party.

In Israel, no one party has ever received more than 50% of the vote, so “blocks of parties” are critical. The right-wing block together with the religious parties has about 55% of the seats in the Knesset. The left and centre-left 35%, and the Arab parties 10%. In order for the left and centre-left block to gain a majority and form a government, they will have to post gains of more than 75% in the election. The polls, in fact, reflect only a four to six seat change in favour of the left and centre-left block.

Interestingly, one of the first polls after the indictment announcement (published in Yisrael Hayom) reflected 43% preferring Netanyahu to be prime minister against 36% for Gantz.

Bennett, when he left HaBayit HaYehudi, took with him Knesset member Ayelet Shahar. Their new party has been named The New Right. The reason for him leaving HaBayit HaYehudi has not received much media coverage. Last year, after the major bombardment from Gaza, both Avigdor Lieberman and Bennett wanted a stronger response from Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu was not in favour of a prolonged war. Lieberman resigned as defence minister. Bennett threatened to do so if he was not appointed defence minister in Lieberman’s place. Netanyahu declined his request, but Bennett did not carry out his threat.

Rumour has it that Netanyahu approached the spiritual leaders of HaBayit HaYehudi, and convinced them to dissuade Bennett from resigning and taking HaBayit HaYehudi out of the coalition. I suggest that this is why Bennett left HaBayit HaYehudi and formed the New Right. He says the New Right will be a party for religious and secular Israelis. It is against having an independent Palestinian state.

When Gantz raised the stakes by merging with Lapid, Netanyahu persuaded the HaBayit HaYehudi-National Union Party to include members of Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) onto its slate. For many, Otzma Yehudit is regarded as espousing racist views. Netanyahu and HaBayit HaYehudi-National Union have been attacked for facilitating the possible entry of racists into the Knesset.

The press have traced the roots of Otzma Yehudit to the party started by Rabbi Meir Kahane which was expelled from the Knesset in 1988. The left-wing parties are instituting action in the electoral commission to have Otzma Yehudit barred from standing in the election. This has led to a counteraction to have Arab parties barred from taking part. After all, if alleged racists from the right are going to be barred, then why not others as well?

At the last election in 2015, there was no such outcry. There was no demand for Otzma Yehudit to be banned because it was not expected to pass the threshold, and the left must have been very happy to see the 120 000 right-wing votes cast in its favour going to waste. Now that these votes will count, the left is claiming the moral high ground. Rather hypocritical!

• Aubrey Katzef is a Cape Town attorney who has a CA, BProc and an Honours degree in Jewish Studies. He is a dedicated Zionist and been involved in Jewish communal affairs and various communal bodies his whole life, including the Jacob Gitlin Library in Cape Town. Aubrey has been an Israeli election pundit for many years and his predictions are seldom off the mark – when they are, it is by a very small margin.