Don’t stress about the super-infectious COVID-19 variant

Just when we hoped COVID-19 was behind us, another new virulent variant has raised its head. This time, it’s the aggressively transmissible Kraken variant of Omicron, known as Omicron XBB.1.5.

However, experts are adamant there’s no reason to panic as South Africans have high immunity to COVID-19.

The high level of immunity is due to high levels of exposure and cross protection, says University of the Witwatersrand professor emeritus of virology, Professor Barry Schoub. Lots of people have been infected and exposed to COVID-19, and this was supplemented with vaccinations. Immunity levels are about 95%. Immunity doesn’t last forever however, perhaps lasting about six to nine months.

Schoub says there’s no evidence at this stage that the new sub-variant causes more severe illness, except in the most vulnerable people, as Omicron is generally a milder variant.

China and the United States (US) have been affected by the latest outbreak of the Kraken variant. Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) in his address on 11 January 2023 said, “Last week, almost 11 500 deaths were reported to WHO – about 40% from the Americas, 30% from Europe, and 30% from the Western Pacific region.”

Kraken, named after the mythical undefeatable sea creature of Scandinavia, is aggressively transmissible and first appeared towards the end of 2021. Unlike most of the variants, it wasn’t assigned a letter of the Greek alphabet as it’s a sub-variant of the Omicron variant and not different enough to deserve its own Greek letter.

Schoub, who was the founding director of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), says Omicron is a particularly changeable variant with more than 650 sub-variants worldwide and more than 200 sub-variants identified so far in South Africa. The XBB.1.5 sub-variant has a mutation in the part of the virus that attaches to the receptor site which makes the virus more “sticky”. This sub-variant spreads more rapidly than all the other variants and sub-variants.

People must ensure that they are up to date with vaccinations, especially the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions like chronic lung disease, asthma, diabetes, and cancer patients. It’s important to have all boosters, Schoub advises. And people shouldn’t be embarrassed to wear masks for protection, especially those at high risk. “Shyness about wearing masks is foolhardy,” he says.

China had a severe lockdown, which was suddenly lifted. Exposure was thus limited and restricted, and, in addition, the country didn’t vaccinate enough, especially amongst the elderly.

In the US, the COVID-19 epidemic is variable, and infection is mild in some parts. The northeast of the country was the first to have XBB.1.5 and the winter season helps spread it more readily. In winter, there’s much less outdoor activity and the virus spreads easily indoors, especially if there’s poor ventilation.

Professor Cheryl Cohen, the head of respiratory diseases at the NICD, agrees that we have a high level of immunity in South Africa. Many people had COVID-19 and/or immunisation, which reduces the risk of the disease spreading, she says. COVID-19 is here to stay, and we must get back to normal.

The health department has announced that additional booster shots will become available for people over 18 soon, Cohen says. “We must learn to live with COVID-19. It will probably start to behave like cold and flu viruses, and we shouldn’t panic about new COVID-19 variants with our high levels of immunity. There have been low levels of cases for several months. Just remember to take regular precautions,” she says.