European countries recognise Palestinian state that doesn’t exist

Ireland, Norway, and Spain have declared that they will formally recognise “Palestine” as a state on 28 May, even though it doesn’t fulfil any of the accepted criteria for statehood.

On 22 May, these three states brought to 145 the number of countries in the United Nations (UN) that recognise “Palestine”, out of 193 member states.

The fact that this quasi-state doesn’t fulfil accepted criteria has been ignored for political expediency and increasing diplomatic pressure on Israel to assent to a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem. This is hard for Israelis to stomach in the wake of the 7 October terror attack, with the high probability of a neighbour hell-bent on its annihilation.

The four main elements for statehood were agreed almost 100 years ago, in the Montevideo Convention of 1933. They stipulate that to be a state, a territory must possess a “a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to conduct international relations”.

The Palestinians claim that millions of refugees from 1948 and 1967 and their millions of descendants are part of its population, which is vehemently opposed by Israel. The land that constitutes “Palestine” is also highly contested. Though all the talk is about a state in Gaza and the West Bank, everyone knows that Palestinians covet the entire territory that comprises modern-day Israel. Whatever one thinks of the Palestinian Authority created by the 1993 Oslo Accords, it’s not a full government in the true sense of the word – and hasn’t held elections for almost two decades. And while it has embassies dotted all over the world, the Palestinians are restricted in the foreign relations they can conduct, and don’t control their own national security.

The main point, of course, is that Israel doesn’t recognise a Palestinian state at this point, so the state, in effect, doesn’t exist. Israel’s experience of its unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 wasn’t a good one, with essentially an aggressive terrorist statelet run by Hamas on its western border.

The announcement of recognition by the three – the first Western European states to do so since Sweden in 2014 – is a political move that dealt a diplomatic blow to Israel. It has steadily lost sympathy on the international stage as its war on Hamas has proceeded. This development will bolster the Palestinian cause, and pile more pressure on Israel to stop the war.

The formal campaign for recognition of “Palestine” in the UN commenced in 1988, in the middle of the First Intifada. South Africa became the 100th state to recognise “Palestine” in 1995. In 2012, it was designated an observer state at the UN. Since April 2024, four Caribbean states have recognised “Palestine”: Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Bahamas.

Announcing the decision, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said, “In the midst of a war, with tens of thousands killed and injured, we must keep alive the only alternative that offers a political solution for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Two states, living side by side, in peace and security.”

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said he hoped his government’s declaration would “offer hope and encouragement to the people of Palestine at one of their darkest hours”.

“This recognition isn’t against anyone, it isn’t against the Israeli people,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told Parliament. “It’s an act in favour of peace, justice, and moral consistency.”

Recognition by other European states could follow in coming weeks. The recognitions add momentum to the diplomatic pressure on Israel to revive long-moribund negotiations with the Palestinians. The two-state solution is something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected throughout his many years in office. His government would see recognition as a perverse reward to Hamas and Iran for the terror attack of 7 October.

Israel reacted sharply to the co-ordinated announcement from the three states, including the recall of its ambassadors from Dublin, Oslo, and Madrid, and summoning their ambassadors to Israel for a formal dressing down, known as a démarche. The ambassadors would also be made to watch video footage of the Hamas terror attack.

Netanyahu said “80% of the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] support the terrible massacre of 7 October. This evil mustn’t be given a state. This will be a terrorist state.”

“History will remember that Spain, Norway, and Ireland decided to award a gold medal to Hamas murderers and rapists,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to stop transferring tax revenue earmarked for the Palestinian Authority.

Israeli analyst Dr Einat Wilf wrote on X, “A recognition of a state of Palestine is a great way to finally clarify – is the other state in the ‘two-state solution’ the Jewish state of Israel? Or, is it, as Palestinians continue to believe, a temporary aberration that will revert to being Arab in due course?”

It’s doubtful that the recognition of “Palestine” by the three European governments will bring Israelis and Palestinians any closer to a lasting peace. It’s a provocative, symbolic act that has put up Israel’s back.

• Steven Gruzd is a political analyst in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.