Is Netanyahu’s reign finally over?

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, I remember some people being so flummoxed that they said anyone could now run for the top job.

This week, I’ve been hearing much the same in Israel.

In a dramatic announcement, Naftali Bennett, a former defence minister and leader of the Yamina (rightwards) party that sits on the far right of the Israeli political spectrum, announced he was joining a coalition with centrist, left-wing, and Arab parties. If he hadn’t actually announced it in front of the television cameras, no one would have believed it.

After all, Bennett is a former Israeli commander who once said, “I have killed lots of Arabs in my life – and there is no problem with that.” Except he’s now joining forces with them, most notably a small Arab Israeli Islamist party, Raam, which has roots in the same religious stream as Hamas. Just two weeks ago, Bennett called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “not to end the current round [of fighting] in Gaza before Hamas pays a heavy price”.

So what’s the ultranationalist leader’s intentions? Does Bennett hate Netanyahu so much that to facilitate his fall from office he’s willing to forgo a lot of what he stands for, to the utter disgust and anger of his constituency? Or is Bennett so desperate to become the next Israeli prime minister that he’s willing to do anything?

There’s a lot of backroom political wrangling going on in Israel at the moment – and no one knows how it will play out.

Netanyahu’s Likud party won the most seats at the last elections held in March, but not enough to give it the 61 out of 120 it needs to govern. Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition and chairperson of Yesh Atid, a centrist political party he founded in 2012, came in second. However, unlike Netanyahu, Lapid, with Bennett’s support, can form a majority coalition. Which is why Lapid and Bennett have cut a deal in which Bennett would serve as Israel’s prime minister until September 2023 after which Lapid would take over until November 2025.

But Bennett is gambling with his political future. If he and Lapid aren’t able to form the next government, elections will need to be held – the fifth in two years – and in such a scenario, Bennett is unlikely to muster a lot of support. His voters will never trust him again.

What’s more, assuming that the two leaders do put together a government, it will comprise seven relatively small parties whose agendas are so wide ranging – and often clashing – that they will need to avoid any controversial issues.

Bennett is a champion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and openly rejects the concept of a sovereign Palestinian state. He advocates annexing West Bank territory. All of these positions are in stark contrast to what parties on the left – and certainly the Arabs – stand for.

In fact, there’s very little that they agree on other than ousting Netanyahu. Their work will probably be limited to issues like the economy, stabilising the recent Hamas ceasefire, and strengthening a post COVID-19 Israel. It’s no surprise then that most analysts predict that should such a coalition government be formed, it will last only a few months at the most.

Bennett has justified joining Lapid by arguing that Israel’s political crisis is unprecedented and “the madness must end”. But what is also mad is to think that out of the nearly three million Israelis who voted back in March, only about 150 000 gave Bennett the nod, garnering him six out of 120 parliamentary seats. And he’s the kingmaker potentially set to become the country’s next prime minister.

Lapid won 17 mandates, which equals a little more than half a million Israelis, while Netanyahu won the most support with 30 mandates – about one million people.

At the time of going to press on Wednesday morning, Lapid hadn’t yet informed Israeli President Reuven Rivlin as to whether or not he could form a government.

Legally, once he does this, he has a week to bring his government to a vote of confidence in parliament. A week is a long time in Israeli politics and at any time, a politician can break rank and decide no longer to support the Lapid-Bennett alliance. Netanyahu has 53 seats and although there’s a slim chance he can win more, one would be foolish to rule him out just yet. He’s not called the magician by his admirers for nothing.

“Fraud of the century” is how Netanyahu described Bennett’s support for a “dangerous, left-wing government. This isn’t unity, healing, or democracy,” he said. “This is an opportunistic government. A government of capitulation, a government of fraud, a government of inertia. A government like this must not be formed.”

Netanyahu has held on as prime minister for more than a decade, and while most of his Likud party remains unflinchingly loyal to him, another personality worth noting is Gideon Saar. He defected from Likud about half a year ago. Like Bennett, Saar is on the right of the political spectrum, also holding six mandates, and also with people on his list that Netanyahu is appealing to break away and join him.

But if Bennett, Lapid, and Saar successfully form the next government, Netanyahu is likely to go back to being the leader of the opposition, a post he held before the 2009 election. In such a position, Netanyahu is likely to be denied any chance of making changes to his corruption trial, currently underway, that would give him some sort of parliamentary immunity. Also, with a majority in parliament against him, it’s possible that legislation will be passed limiting the number of terms a prime minister can serve, or barring any candidate who has been charged with crimes from running for office.

Still, such a coalition won’t last long, and it’ll only be a matter of time before new elections will need to be held. Should that happen, there’s no knowing how Netanyahu might fare. So even if he’s forced out in the next week, he might show up again a little down the line. For some time now, the political knives have been out for him, but for his part, Netanyahu has made it clear he intends to fight on. And that fight could continue to drag on for quite some time still.