An op-ed by ANT KATZ

Opinion

A Christian Zionist sent me this Wednesday evening. I don’t know who sent it to her…

“You may know by now that we have a large-scale air operation flying to-and-fro to the Golan Heights, in preparation for a possible outbreak of war. This is no secret. The arrival in Quneitra of President Bashar Assad’s elite unit, which they generally reserve strictly for battles of the highest strategic importance, speaks of a strong possibility of major conflict. 

Right: Author Ant Katz

“I am asking you to share this with them, if they do not already know, and tell them, Israel needs them to pray for the Almighty to protect Israel and our soldiers as they prepare for the strong possibility of full-scale war. Pray for the safety of our civilians.

“A conflict could break out at any time, or it can be delayed indefinitely. But a serious conflict is now on the cards. We trust the Almighty to stand before us but we know that we need the prayers of those who know Jeshua ha Meshiag and can call on Him with confidence.”

Wow. Could this actually be for real? I really don’t know why this one sounded so realistic to me.

And, quite honestly, it may also tick the box I have about where Russia had outfoxed the US over the ceasefire. That Vladimir Putin had got what he had wanted, I never doubted. I just couldn’t see why he thought he would benefit. 

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Something pricked my interest

I have always believed that Hezbollah fought for Syria in exchange for a promise to assist them in their battles against Israel later – but I never thought things would have developed like they have over the past few years. Suddenly, the threat is very real and, say Israeli media, possibly imminent.

Think about it If Vladimir Putin wants to kick the US’s butt: The Russians and Chinese have always wanted to, what better for the future of the world for Putin to allow his biggest enemy’s best friend to get smacked down? Under his nose while his trade guys sign deals like crazy in Iran?

What better way to get that ox, Trump elected?

I was wondering whether this could all be a bit conspiratorial on my part, when it came to my attention on Wednesday evening – so I looked for some sign that I wasn’t crazy on the news wire services. This quickly led me to these two of many news items that bore out what had been told:

• ISRAEL INKS HISTORIC GAS DEAL WITH JORDAN AT PERILOUS TIME – HOW THE ISRAELI NAVY IS PREPARING FOR WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH. It is a very credible story on what I have found to be a very credible source – Frontpagemag.com, written by the very credible Ari Lieberman and published Wednesday; and
• ISRAEL DEPLOYS DRONES ALONG SYRIAN BORDER TO MONITOR JIHADIST THREATS, ERRANT FIRE by Ruthie Blum and published in Algermeiner.com earlier this week.

I immediately texted the links to my Christian Zionist friend and wrote:

“I have a stronger concern – because Syria has got a thing about strategic surprises. The last time they had the guts to try was in 1972 on Yom Kippur.”

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Becoming increasingly serious 

By now, I had heaps of questions, reasons, motives, and even more rushing through my mind.

LEFT: An IDF photo of one of the newly purchased drones assisting them to monitor the Syrian border

I lived on kibbutz Kfar Tzold as a volunteer for six months after the Yom Kippur War. I believe that I understand the geo-politics of the region better than most – and of that north-east corner intimately. Kfar Tzolders were a gritty bunch of South Americans who purchased the land when it was under Ottoman rule before the First World War.

They speak Spanish as a first language to this day, and even now, 100 years on, their children sleep in a purpose-built underground bunker every night. The fence of the kibbutz became the 1948 Ceasefire Line, adopted by a fledgling UN along the Golan – and they overlook Lebanon.

RIGHT: Hezbollah is equipped with the real deal, not like these Qassam rockets of Hamas. And so are Syria and Iran…

While the Syrian border seems far away today, in 1972 they witnessed the battlefields, and, as volunteers, we were taken on tours of the same battlefields and conducted searches for debris.

So, it was all feeling a little too real for me and I communicated with a friend in Israel – asking him if I was nuts? Not at all, he confirmed. “All true and public knowledge here.” That was last night.

He says it is “standard procedure to be prepared here. Details sometimes become known. Not new at all. Israelis aren’t even reacting. I saw tanks making their way up north today on highway. Standard. We’d be first to feel any changes and I’ll let you know.”

He says that if there are faint drums of war sounding, most Israelis immediately know about it.

How?

Because folks get called up or put on stand-by, military and auxiliary services get called up, out of their regular training routines, and that raises suspicion immediately.

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Now, close your eyes… really…

 …breathe, relax clear your mind and count slowly to ten – and then read on.

Picture this scenario…

Hezbollah are battle-tested, well paid and armed – and stashing sophisticated arms at home (as we know from previous intercepts). They have served their Iranian and Syrian pay-masters well, while investing their profits in training new recruits and hardening their well-stocked and sophisticated   artillery- and rocket-sites deep in the Lebanese hillsides. That they keep their ammunition in bunkers under their houses and schools is common knowledge.

That they are linked by a web of underground tunnels, Israel found out the last time they went in there.

RIGHT: The Israeli navy prepares to take on Hezbollah too

Imagine how that has developed in the past decades. Hezbollah are no longer needed in Syria but they don’t want to go home until they have been paid in Israeli blood.

The elite Syrian troops who were held in reserve and never deployed – with even more sophisticated weapons and, say, their ammunition safely stockpiled on Russian bases that nobody – Israeli or American would dare attack for fear of arousing the bear.

Lebanon would not want to appear to be involved, especially given their general hatred of Syria and Hezbollah. But, in this case the government’s fear of both these powers probably trumps their hatred for Hezbollah and the country may provide logistical support such as medical services.

Lebanon’s fears are well-founded. Hezbollah was party to, and questionably the instigators of, the 1975 to 1990 civil war between Christians, Muslims and fanatic anti-Israel supporters. It resulted in an estimated 250 000 fatalities and over a million Lebanese left the country, never to return.

The internal strife that this 15-year-old war caused the little, peaceful, mountain country was, and still is immeasurable. Eventually, the Syrians marched in and restored a modicum of peace. But they didn’t leave for decades – and then when they were finally ousted, they left a bomb to kill the President as a parting gift. So the Lebanese government would fear the ramifications of both a politically or militarily renewed civil war and will likely aid and abet but not participate.

Syria has the resources and is committed to Hezbollah, if only because of commitments they likely made to the Iranians – and probably the Russians too. They may even have Iranian ground, and definitely logistic and general staff resources.

Russia would not enter the fray as they wouldn’t like to pit their pilots against the Israelis and come off second best. The bear will not pounce unless provoked. But they will have Assad’s backing.

The tremendous European and US air and anti-air missile resources in the area to fight ISIS out of the Mediterranean Sea are also a factor. The Western powers are all still smarting for letting Russia take Crimea, trash Ukraine and drop into the Syrian situation with such stealth, strength and speed. No, Russian planes will remain grounded, but continue fighting the Free Syrian Army and ISIS. So they will have the attackers’ backs, allowing them to focus on the Golan. And, they may allow Syria to keep their ammunition safe in Russian bases. The considerable anti-air defence assets on the Russian bases could be used to limit both Israeli and Allied aircraft in the skies over the battle.

To the south, Israel’s client and ally Jordan will not enter the battle, neither will Egypt. And Saudi Arabia will not become involved at all. So the little State that is would only have a single front to fight on – but, were it to come about, it will be a ferocious battle.

It is possible that, assuming a surprise attach had been in the offing, the fact that it is not such a surprise may scare the prospective assaulter and cause him to have a rethink. Maybe the originator of the message was right, and that the more people are aware and the more it is published, the less the likelihood of anything happening.

Especially given Asssad’s – and his late father, the butcher’s – propensity for surprise attacks. 

PG

Just saying…