Looking forward with ‘2020’ vision

STEVEN GRUZD

The year 2020 will be an important year for South Africa on the international stage. It enters its second year as an elected non-permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council. South Africa will chair the council for the month of November, where the theme will be “Youth, peace, and security”. The country will advocate for African matters like resolving ongoing conflicts in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Libya. It will also have to tackle nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea, meltdown in Latin America, and the repercussions of the trade war between the United States and China. The year 2020 will include reflections on the UN’s five years of Sustainable Development Goals in July and September.

Pretoria will chair the continental club of the African Union (AU) in 2020, as well as the African Peer Review Mechanism, a good-governance promotion tool. The AU’s annual theme for next year is “Silencing the guns: creating conducive conditions for Africa’s development”. We expect South Africa once again to focus on strengthening ties between the AU and UN.

Domestically, resuscitating the ailing economy should be a key priority, including the mess in state-owned enterprises like Eskom and South African Airways, and avoiding further ratings downgrades. The Zondo Commission into state capture should wrap up, but will anyone be held accountable? Former President Jacob Zuma’s efforts to remain out of jail will drag on.

Expect some celebration and soul searching around 2 February, when we reflect on 30 years since former President FW de Klerk’s speech that unbanned liberation movements and propelled the country on its path to democracy.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) will struggle to cope with high-profile walkouts and the loss of control of Tshwane and Johannesburg as its strange bedfellow, the Economic Freedom Fighters, has deserted it. The DA could face a fierce battle to elect a successor to interim leader John Steenhuisen.

The Jewish community will be anxiously watching for any change to the status quo of “no South African ambassador in Israel, but also no formal downgrade of the embassy either”. It’s unlikely that United States President Donald Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan, if and when revealed, will gain the traction he expects it to, given the concessions he has given to the Israeli side so far.

At the time of writing, it seemed that Israel was hurtling inexorably to its third election within a year, as the political stalemate persists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s indictment for breach of trust, fraud, and bribery will undoubtedly dominate the Israeli political terrain. How it unfolds could profoundly influence Israeli politics, especially if some kind of immunity deal is reached.

On the security front, Israel unfortunately still faces periodic rocket fire on both its southern and northern flanks, from Hamas and other extremists in Gaza, and from Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon. Iran and Russia in Syria complicates the strategic picture. I wouldn’t hold my breath for much movement on peace with the Palestinians either. It’s been 100 years since violence erupted in Jerusalem when nine were killed and 216 injured in the 1920 “Palestine Riots” under the British Mandate.

The US elections are on 3 November 2020. Trump will fight impeachment with all he has as he seeks a second term. There are at least two strong Jewish contenders in the Democratic primaries, Senator Bernie Sanders on the left, and the business-friendly former New York Mayor and business tycoon, Michael Bloomberg. The year 2020 also marks 100 years since women won the right to vote in the US.

Britain will have a new government, and the Brexit saga will probably continue.

Some significant commemorations will include the 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Versailles, which officially ended World War I, and the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz and Birkenau concentration camps by the Soviets. It will also be 75 years since the end of World War II and the founding of the UN in 1945. 2 August marks the 30th anniversary of the start of the first Gulf War.

On the sporting front, kick-off of UEFA Euro 2020 will take place in June, to be held in 12 different European countries. On 24 July, the 2020 Summer Olympics will commence in Tokyo, Japan. The Springboks will eagerly battle everyone wanting to take a crack at the 2019 world champions.

In case you think my predictions are a load of rubbish, may I remind you what I wrote in December 2018 on these very pages. “I … confidently predict a Springbok win in the Rugby World Cup in Japan in November. We triumph at 12-year intervals: 1995 and 2007, so we’re due.”

Happy New Year!

• Steven Gruzd is an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs