Not another Israeli election!

English-Jewish actor/comedian Sacha Baron Cohen was asked by an Israeli television outlet if he knew Israel was headed for another election. His reply summed up the feeling of more than 60% of Israelis who are eligible to vote.

“You’re voting again?! Enough already!” Baron Cohen exclaimed. “It’s like Passover: why is this election different to all others?”

And that’s just the point – it isn’t.

Last December, when the previous Israeli government collapsed, the reality of a fourth election in just two years became uncannily inevitable. But nothing’s changed. Whereas the previous three elections revolved largely around the question of whether or not voters wanted Benjamin Netanyahu as their prime minister, that question, this time around, is even more pressing.

In the previous elections there might have been some mention, albeit on the periphery, of issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the settlements, and military service for ultra-Orthodox men. But during this election campaign, those issues aren’t even being brought up. It’s a contest between “Only Bibi [Netanyahu]” and “anyone but Bibi”.

And it has divided the country. For months now, protestors have been gathering outside the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem and at intersections throughout the country, waving flags and banners, and demanding that he step down. Their hatred of Netanyahu seems to sometimes border on obsession. Protestors complain about his stinginess and sponging off wealthy acquaintances and the state, his troubled relations with employees, and his inclination to manipulate facts well before the term “fake news” was popularised by former American President Donald Trump.

But that isn’t the only parallel that can be drawn between the two leaders. Political advisors working during last November’s American presidential election for then Democratic contender Joe Biden, focused on Trump the personality and stayed away from issues.

They were successful. According to a Pew poll, 56% of Biden’s voters said that the main reason they voted for him was because he was not President Trump. Only 9% said their vote had to do with Biden’s positions.

Some of those same advisors have been working in Israel, trying to steer voters away from issues and reinforcing the “anybody but Bibi” camp that has been steadily gaining momentum over recent years.

But like Trump, Netanyahu has his stalwarts who consistently blame the media, judiciary, and “left-wingers” for telling lies and conspiring towards his downfall.

It’s not as though there are no issues in Israel to discuss ahead of these elections. But they are all overshadowed by personalities. For example, Israel has administered more than 7.6 million COVID-19 vaccination doses, making its rollout the fastest in the world. This is something that Netanyahu takes personal credit for.

As he does the fact that – with the help of the Trump administration – he delivered deals to establish diplomatic relations with four formerly hostile Arab countries over the past four months. He also boasts that his administrations have led the country through years of relative security and stability.

Still, it doesn’t change the numbers in his support base. Netanyahu’s advocates merely argue that these things prove he is the best leader for Israel, while his detractors maintain that he has politicised the coronavirus rollout, the economy has shrunk, and the airport is closed.

There is no real reason to think, nor are the polls indicating that Israelis are going to change their voting patterns dramatically come 23 March. A Netanyahu critic isn’t all of a sudden going to cast a ballot for him; and a left-wing voter won’t suddenly support a right-wing party. By and large, the candidates are the same as the last election, which suggests the result will also be.

There’s no guarantee that a fifth election isn’t around the corner. In fact, the feeling in Israel is that it’s all but inevitable.

The public is exhausted by this seemingly endless cycle of ballots. Voters are feeling increasingly apathetic, and many are wondering if this isn’t a case of too much democracy.

Already two years ago, Israelis were complaining of election fatigue; now add people’s weariness with coronavirus and constant lockdowns to the mood, and it’s no surprise that a recent Tel Aviv University study warned of a growing mental-health problem in the country. It found that Israelis are sleeping more, performing less exercise, and are more unhappy.

Still, it’s worth pointing out that in spite of predictions of low turnout because of voter fatigue and concerns about coronavirus, the last elections held exactly a year ago attracted the highest number of voters – 71% – in five years. It goes to show that only fools predict Israeli elections; nobody can know at this stage how the next one will end up.

But if there’s one reason why this month’s election will be different from previous ones, it’s because it will be fought overwhelmingly on the right wing of the Israeli political spectrum. Most of the centre-left and centre parties are expected to decline in support or vanish.

It has spurred some right-wing politicians – Netanyahu among them – to start courting Arab voters, particularly those who have been left jobless and desperate by the pandemic. Netanyahu claims he will win two to three seats from the Arab public, especially after the Joint List, a mainly Arab grouping that secured the biggest-ever vote share in last year’s election, broke up last month.

So maybe it will be Bibi. Or maybe it won’t. Maybe there’ll be a fifth election. Maybe there won’t. It is said that the only predictable thing in the Middle East is that the region is ridiculously unpredictable. Israel is no exception. A joke circulating at the moment: no matter the results, all Israelis will get what they want. No more annoying, nonstop SMS messages.