Pandor out, Lamola in: same same, but different?

If the Jewish community and its supporters were hoping for a more Israel-friendly minister of international relations and cooperation than Dr Naledi Pandor, they might be disappointed.

A full month after South Africans went to the polls, President Cyril Ramaphosa finally announced his new Cabinet for the Government of National Unity (GNU) on 30 June. Speculation was rife that Pandor might continue in her role in spite of publicly announcing her desire to retire in January, and not making it into Parliament for the African National Congress (ANC). In the end, Ramaphosa plumped for former minister of justice and constitutional development, Ronald Lamola. While he may be a new face, he’s no fan of Israel either.

Lamola’s tenure in the justice ministry was mostly out of the public eye. He did, however, appear on the Jewish community’s radar as a leader of South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In January, he said that Nelson Mandela would be smiling in his grave due to South Africa’s exploits in The Hague.

Later, he told the BBC that there was no antisemitism in South Africa, drawing a sharp rebuke from the South African Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD). The Board collects statistics on antisemitism, and has reported a strong uptick in incidents in South Africa since the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas.

Deputy Minister Alvin Botes – also notorious for his anti-Israel positions – will continue in his role. The relatively unknown and young Thandi Moraka, who was previously in the Limpopo provincial legislature, has been appointed as a second deputy minister. She was a former deputy secretary-general of the ANC Youth League from 2015 to 2019.

Community leaders remain cautiously hopeful. SAJBD President Zev Krengel said, “It’s just unbelievable to see the end of Pandor, who most probably was the most antisemitic minister we have seen in this country, ever. So to see her gone is a great thing for the community. Minister Lamola has made some very unpleasant comments, but my view is that he’s more of a listener. He’s younger. He doesn’t always preach, lecture, and scold as Pandor used to do. And maybe there can be some form of understanding that South Africa’s best contribution to the Middle East conflict is to be a peace partner that sees both sides and doesn’t take one side against another. So I’m cautiously optimistic. The GNU is a great thing for South Africa. To have many pro-Israel ministers around the table, it’s the first time we’ve actually seen that since 1994.”

Krengel said it was “highly unlikely” that there would be a major policy shift with regard to Israel, but “there could be a surprise for us all”.

Rolene Marks, the spokesperson for the South African Zionist Federation (SAZF), said Pandor’s departure “represents a positive development. Her tenure was marked by engagements with regimes that sponsor global terrorism such as Iran, cordial relations with autocratic leaders, and an obsession with bashing Israel on the international stage. However, the appointment of Ronald Lamola … raises concerns that the anti-Israel stance of the previous administration will persist. As minister of justice, Lamola supported South Africa’s case at the ICJ, which included unsubstantiated allegations against Israel. It’s therefore unlikely that the new government will withdraw this unfounded case.

“Despite these apprehensions,” Marks said, the SAZF noted that the new coalition “includes ministers from the Patriotic Alliance and the Inkatha Freedom Party, both of which have demonstrated a more balanced or supportive stance towards Israel. The SAZF is hopeful that this diverse representation will lead to improved relations and a reduction in the hostility that characterised Pandor’s tenure.”

Analysts are predicting continuity in the GNU. “I don’t see any drastic changes in foreign policy” said Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs, including strong support for the Palestinians. “Historically this was one of the [issues] where there was little deviation. It has been a consistent position for the past 30 years, arguably the most critical non-African foreign policy file in South Africa.”

Professor Hussein Solomon at the University of the Free State agreed. “Lamola has already made it clear that he will continue in terms of foreign policy,” he said. “He was also there at the ICJ, so I don’t expect a change in terms of the Middle East policy. My sense is this GNU isn’t going to work, frankly. Let’s see if it’s still around in December.”

“I anticipate the potential for increased clarity in South Africa’s foreign policy positions and relations,” said De Carvalho. “Unlike the previous administration, which could afford to present more ambiguous positions on certain topics, the current political landscape demands a more transparent approach. The ANC will have less capacity to determine foreign policy priorities entirely on its own. This means probably giving more autonomy to the department of international relations and cooperation [DIRCO]. And Parliament should become more involved, primarily through the International Relations [IR] Committee. It will be interesting to see whether the IR portfolio in Parliament will be given to another party.”

Many in the Jewish community were hoping for change and perhaps even someone from another party, but this ministry was too important to the ANC to compromise. The new DIRCO team should be given a chance, but expectations for a radical turnaround on Israel policy are unrealistic.