Potential for war between US and Iran

PAULA SLIER

This week, he warned Tehran that it would “suffer greatly” if it “did anything” to provoke the United States.

His words are backed up with action. He’s deployed an aircraft carrier strike group, B-52 bombers, and other military personnel and equipment to the Persian Gulf.

It comes amid growing fears that another war in the Middle East could be around the corner, this time between the US and Iran. That’s not to say that Trump wants this war – both civilian and military American leaders insist he doesn’t. However, the point is that he’s prepared for war if necessary.

And each time he espouses another aggressive comment or sanctions another confrontational action, the odds escalate in favour of such a war breaking out.

So how did things suddenly get so heated?

The Americans reportedly received intelligence about two weeks ago that Tehran was planning to attack American targets in the region. This could mean attacks on the more than 5 000 American troops in Iraq or on US commercial ships, oil tankers, and military vessels in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

Israel’s Channel 13 recently reported that Jerusalem passed along intelligence warnings of Iranian plans also to strike installations linked to American ally Saudi Arabia’s petroleum trade. Over the weekend, that intelligence proved correct as two Saudi oil tankers were damaged by alleged Iranian or Iranian-backed proxies. Tehran, though, denies involvement.

No surprise, then, that Trump is becoming more hostile. An updated military plan was presented at a meeting of his top national security aides last week. It envisions sending in as many as 120 000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces or increase work on its nuclear programme. Behind the proposal is Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, a long-time supporter of confronting Tehran. While the plan does not necessarily mean a ground offensive, it’s being seen as a possible way to achieve regime change in the country.

Not everyone in the US administration supports Bolton’s plan, but the fact that it’s on the table shows how dangerous the threat from Iran has become.

Or has it? The official word from Tehran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is that “there is not going to be any war” with the US. In comments televised across the country, he said, “This face-off is not military. Neither we nor them [the US] seek war. They know it will not be in their interest.”

But Khamenei stressed that he would also not renegotiate the nuclear deal, a deal that Trump has criticised for being the “worst, horrible, laughable”. Trump wants the Iranians to return to the bargaining table in a bid to reach a new nuclear agreement more favourable to the US than the one signed by the Obama administration four years ago.

So what can the American president do? He can threaten, he can beat his fists, but will it work?

Critics warn that Trump’s bullying will backfire, and point out that the country’s leaders are hardliners for whom national pride is everything.

This means that the bellicose comments could have the reverse effect, as Iran’s leaders try to save face. Or, as they have already indicated, Iran’s leaders could be patient with Trump and try to wait him out.

But it’s possible that the waiting period is running out, and that’s why we are seeing intelligence suggestions that Tehran is starting to respond militarily. Maybe US sanctions are taking their toll? Or maybe the Iranians fear Trump might be re-elected?

In spite of Washington vowing that it will keep up the pressure until Tehran changes its behaviour, this has not yet happened. If anything, Iranian leaders seem to be as immutable as ever. There are even suggestions that far from returning to the negotiating table, they are simply halting on some of their commitments regarding the nuclear deal.

Trump cannot be keen to launch a war with Iran, especially when his foreign policy has been to disentangle the US from Afghanistan and Syria. The question is will he run out of patience? So far, he hasn’t commented on his national security adviser’s plan to send so many American troops back to the region. Instead, in typical Trump fashion, he says all options are on the table.

But even if war doesn’t happen, Trump’s pressure campaign is likely to result in oil prices climbing, and even greater suffering for ordinary Iranian people. The nuclear deal could collapse once and for all, but with nothing to replace it. It’s not clear what that would mean – carte blanche for Tehran to resume its nuclear activity? Trump seems to have pushed himself into a corner.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran poses an existential threat. That threat, at least initially, is less about a direct war between Israel and Iran than about Iran activating its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and elsewhere to take aim at the Jewish state. Netanyahu has always argued that there is no way to find common ground with Iran, and the only solutions are regime change or total surrender.

It’s unclear whether Trump will heed Bolton’s advice and follow the path Netanyahu wants, pushing Iran to the brink, or whether he will pull back and pursue the “art of the deal”. He’s as unpredictable as ever.