Pundits rate Marcus’ July ride close to a certainty

JACK MILNER

Marcus has won the Durban July four times – so has Tiger Wright and so has Anthony Delpech. Four seems like some kind of impenetrable barrier which nobody can get past. Wright retired many years back but Marcus could have the best chance of rewriting history if handicapping fundis have it right.

There are certain rules which apply to the weights given to horses for the Durban July. They are very complicated but the key rule in this particular case is that once the weights have been announced, they will not change, irrespective of what a horse may win in any race prior to the Durban July.  

Legal Eagle was allotted a weight of 54,5kg based on his merit rating of 112. A few days after the weights were allocated this three-year-old colt won the Jubilee Handicap at Turffontein, beating older horses despite giving them loads of weight. His rating was adjusted to 120, which means that had the weights been announced a few days later, Legal Eagle would have had to carry 4kg more.     

So, based on his current handicap, Legal Eagle has a massive advantage over the field and if one considers 4kg is equivalent to about four lengths, one can see why the handicapping experts are declaring Legal Eagle as close to the proverbial “racing certainty” as possible.

But, alas, racing is not that simple. So many other factors come into play. The draw is often one and Legal Eagle jumps from No 11, which is in the middle of the field. In some ways that can be good as a horse is unlikely to be cut off as horses drawn wide look to move closer to the inside rail.

Marcus is very happy to be riding a horse like Legal Eagle who he says has “a touch of class about him”, but he does voice one serious concern.

“I’m worried about racing at Greyville. Legal Eagle has won all of his races on galloping courses like Turffontein. He has yet to run on a tighter track, like Greyville.”

The KwaZulu-Natal course has been remodelled to add a second Polytrack to the layout. As a result the turf track has narrowed and that could make life tough for horses such as Legal Eagle who like to come from behind and have to wind their way through 17 other competitors, some who are falling back as they drop out of contention. Last year it was a very rough-run race and a number of the top horses failed to get a run.

Marcus is one of the best jockeys to have competed in this country and that is why he has such a huge following and is highly respected by virtually all the trainers and owners.

If there is a way, he will find it, and it would be a major surprise should Legal Eagle not finish in the top four. In fact, this year the tote is paying up to six places so there could be some good bets.

Legal Eagle is trained by Sean Tarry and owned by Markus and Ingrid Jooste. 

Other than Legal Eagle, the horses I like are Majmu, to be ridden by Delpech who is also seeking his fifth July win, Futura and French Navy. The best outsiders I believe are Power King, Pine Princess and Helderberg Blue.