Rasool’s expulsion – a crisis not a hiccup

Joel Pollak isn’t sorry that he’s cost South Africa’s ambassador to the United States (US) his job. And Tony Leon, former Democratic Alliance leader and former ambassador to Argentina said that the expulsion of Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool from Washington is “not a hiccup in the relationship as President Cyril Ramaphosa characterised it, but a full-blown crisis. It’s the lowest point in US-South Africa bilateral relations in recent or indeed living memory.”

The South African-born Pollak told the SA Jewish Report that he felt “indifferent” about getting Rasool fired, “though hopeful that the South African government will understand that its policies must change”.

Pollak broke the story on the ultra-conservative Breitbart News Network that Rasool had publicly called President Donald Trump a racist and a supremacist in a webinar. Within hours, Rasool was declared persona non grata by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on X and booted out of the country. Rubio referenced Pollak’s piece in deciding to expel Rasool, a former Western Cape premier and ambassador in Washington, D.C. from 2010 to 2015, who lasted a mere two months in this his second stint. Where does this leave bilateral relations? And how might it affect the Jewish community in South Africa?

Pollak said, “I presume that South Africa sent Rasool [to Washington] because he represents the actual policies of the South African government. The policies are the problem, not the person, although in this case, Rasool dug his own hole, even if that sort of idiocy is fashionable among South African elites and on university campuses.”

The expulsion may, however, scupper Pollak’s own diplomatic ambitions. Sara Gon, the director of the Free Speech Union of South Africa, said, “I suspect it means that Joel Pollak will not be accredited if Trump appoints him as ambassador to South Africa. I’m not sure if South Africa would accredit any appointee, in a tit-for-tat gesture.”

South Africa-US relations have been steadily deteriorating over the past decade and more, but have become doubly difficult in Donald Trump’s second term. In February, the president followed a social media post about Afrikaners being discriminated against and land being arbitrarily seized with an executive order halting all American aid to South Africa. US cabinet secretaries – including Rubio – boycotted G20 meetings in Johannesburg and Cape Town. Rasool had struggled to meet the US State Department.

“The US holds most of the cards,” said Leon. “South Africa has a pair of twos as opposed to trumps, (forgive the pun). That would include the fact that we provide 100% of America’s chrome imports and that we are a significant economy in Africa. But for the rest, I think, leaving aside the diplomatic theatrics involved and the protocols busted or observed, in either case, we have the policy, the prescripts, which really are the cause of the tension: the alignment with Iran; the enablement of Hamas; the ICJ [International Court of Justice] case against Israel … All these could and should change or at least be adjusted and tempered, but there’s no sign of that. So even if South Africa were to find a homegrown diplomatic superstar in the Henry Kissinger mould, he or she would be hard-pressed to get better terms of engagement absent a step change in South Africa’s current foreign alignments.”

Many feel that continued trade concessions for South Africa through the African Growth and Opportunity Act have already become impossible to salvage, potentially costing thousands of jobs and hurting South Africans at the supermarket tills.

Pollak said, “The South African Jewish community should take heart and understand that people in the United States are watching and listening, including to the strong moral stance taken by the chief rabbi. It was sheer coincidence that Rasool made his remarks on Purim and was expelled the same day, but it was also relevant in a symbolic sense.”

Things could turn sour for the Jewish community. The Institute of Race Relations’ Terence Corrigan said, “The ANC [African National Congress] is certainly given towards conspiracy theorising … it will look for scapegoats like Solidarity and AfriForum, and then probably the Jews.”

Zev Krengel, the national president of the South African Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD) said, “The SAJBD has always maintained that Ebrahim Rasool wasn’t an appropriate choice for ambassador to Washington,” but advocated cool heads and open dialogue.

Israeli journalist Rolene Marks said, “I think we got here because Rasool has put ideology ahead of the best interests of South Africa. He is a known supporter of Hamas and a known agitator against Israel. He should have been focusing on growing trade and diplomatic relations. This expulsion sends a very, very strong signal to South Africa that it had better get its house in order.”

Whether South Africa adjusts its policies remains to be seen. It looks unlikely.

“President Ramaphosa now has to make a decision,” Marks said. “Does he work in the best interests of his country’s economy, employment, and trade? Or does he work in the interest of the rogue states that he has allowed South Africa to be aligned with, like Iran?”

Corrigan noted that the ANC government has taken actions “calculated to be visibly hostile towards America”, including the effort to rename Sandton Drive as Leila Khaled Drive after a Palestinian hijacker, because the US Consulate sits on that road. “South Africa has put itself on America’s radar because of its past actions. This isn’t just a Trump thing. Trump is simply far more pugilistic than any of his predecessors.”

Former US diplomat Brooks Spector said, “The departure of Rasool from the US, the need, now, to appoint a new representative, and the pending appointment of a new US ambassador to South Africa provide a moment to dial back the mutual irritations or worse between the two nations. Given its circumstances and standing in the world, it may also provide an opportunity for South Africa to focus much more on its own national interests rather than on external challenges like Gaza, lowering its megaphone on those. Nevertheless, South Africa’s chairmanship of this year’s G20 and the handover to the US at the end of the year offers an opportunity to find firmer, stronger common ground.”

With Trump overturning decades of diplomatic conventions and niceties, policymakers are struggling with how to deal with the new reality. For a start, having respected, capable ambassadors in both capitals is vital for ultimately repairing relations.