South Africans seek balanced foreign policy, including on Israel

Politicians and the media make assumptions about what South Africans think about foreign policy. Whether it’s conflict in the Middle East; relations with the West and “the rest”; or how much foreign policy matters, they presume to know their voters’ minds. But recent public opinion surveys from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) display a more complex picture.

“What [our research] shows is that the propaganda from the African National Congress [ANC] and the mainstream media isn’t making South Africans rabidly anti-Israel,” said SRF analyst Gabriel Makin. “These efforts haven’t hit home. They have been almost ineffectual. There’s a clear discrepancy between what the media and elites tell us that South Africans believe, and what’s happening on the ground,” Makin said.

Makin was presenting survey results in a webinar hosted by a new think tank, the Middle East Africa Research Institute (MEARI), on 14 November 2024. The surveys are based on demographically and geographically representative samples of between 1 400 and 1 800 South African adults, with a margin of error of 3% to 5%.

The SRF tested perceptions of the Israel-Palestine question in the Western Cape in an opinion poll in February 2024. The province has the largest Muslim population in South Africa, at 7.6%. Awareness that there was a war between Israel and Hamas was fairly high, but in terms of which side they supported, there was a plurality who said, “Don’t know”, or refused to answer.

People in the Western Cape were also evenly split over whether Hamas was a resistance movement, an organisation with a good cause but bad methods, or a terrorist organisation. When analysed by the race of the respondent, 70% of white people polled said it was a terrorist organisation, while only 15% of coloureds agreed. About 25% of coloureds said that Hamas was a legitimate resistance movement, and a further 40% agreed with its ideals but not its tactics. Results at national level were similar.

There was greater sympathy for solidarity with the Palestinian people than for Hamas, even among coloured voters. “The general view is that people are split and don’t really know who to side with,” Makin said. “Among all Western Cape registered voters, 31.3% supported Israel’s actions in the war compared to 13.7% who supported Hamas’s actions. The balance of opinion in the province was not to know or not to say which side was supported.”

When asked if a political party’s stance on Israel would make people more or less likely to vote for it, the majority of those polled said that any strong stance on Israel – either for or against – would make them somewhat less likely to vote for that party. Like those in the Western Cape, voters nationally prefer parties that are neutral on the Israel issue.

“This suggests that the topic of Israel-Palestine is toxic, and many parties try to avoid making a firm claim,” said Makin. “Voters are much more focused on domestic issues, and don’t care much about the country getting involved in overseas conflicts.”

As to whether they thought Israel was an “apartheid state”, in a national survey in September 2004, a plurality of those polled thought that Israel practiced apartheid policies on Palestinians.

SRF surveys also show that voters don’t think the country should line up behind China and Russia at the expense of relations with the West. The electorate was evenly split on this issue as well. A large number of people hadn’t heard of the allegations that weapons had been smuggled onto the Russian ship, Lady R, when docked in Simon’s Town. Again, many had no opinion, didn’t know, or refused to answer.

“Voters want us to be non-aligned and not pick a side,” Makin said. “They want more neutral, balanced politics that benefits them, without antagonising any power bloc.” In general, voters want a pragmatic government that puts South Africa first, driven by economic issues rather than ideology.

In its analysis of this data, the SRF wrote, “A popular thesis in the legacy media is that Russia and China act in malevolent ways to shift public opinion in liberal democracies against the best interest of those societies. All great powers seek to influence the opinions of people in foreign nations, and there’s little in the foundation’s experience to suggest that such actions are unique to Russia and China. Nonetheless, when the cliché is tested, what stands out is that wealthier, middle-class people and Democratic Alliance (DA) voters are far more likely to believe the proposition than are poorer people and ANC voters.”

Makin noted that ANC and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) voter opinion was generally split modestly in favour of Russia and China, while DA opinion was split modestly in favour of the West. “The race-based data shows that black opinion generally splits roughly evenly, but if anything in favour of Russia and China, while white opinion splits strongly in favour of the West, and coloured opinion generally in favour of the West.”

In other results from these surveys, voters viewed the post-election Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africa more favourably if they were supporters of the ANC and DA, who are in the coalition. They viewed it less favourably if they voted for the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK) or the EFF, both outside the GNU, and both with slight declines in support since the May 2024 elections. Voters also generally think the DA has made a more positive contribution to the GNU than the ANC. But results also indicate that the GNU must deliver on its promises or voters may seek more radical, populist alternatives.

MEARI Executive Director Benji Shulman noted that Makin’s data had correctly predicted both the rise of the MK, and that Donald Trump would win the United States presidential election.

All the SRF’s data and reports are online: https://srfreports.co.za/