The exponential growth of artificial intelligence

GILLIAN KLAWANSKY

Jacobson was discussing the impact of AI on education and the job market among other things at the Rabbi Cyril Harris Community Centre at the Great Park Synagogue in Johannesburg recently.

We’re already much further along in the development of AI than many think. “We’re never going to get to some elusive end point, we live in exponential times,” said Jacobson. “Exponential means that it doesn’t look like much is happening when it begins, but it’s growing and multiplying. As it gets into the double digits, it doubles and doubles, and so on. This is what it looks like when technology and its capability halves in price, but doubles annually in power.”

“Donald Trump did us a favour when he started talking about post truth,” she said. “We’re about to become post truth. Thought leaders say that our children – those who are already born – will be the last generation of humans that are unaltered.

“In other words, AI will no longer be out there anymore, but in here – inside of us. Chinese scientists last year already carried out gene editing on live human embryos. The world went mad, but they did it anyway, and two little girls were born. The chief scientist removed a certain gene that makes people HIV resistant, but it’s thought in studies that removing that gene also increases intelligence.”

AI is at the crux of what’s changing our world so quickly, but it’s not doing it alone, said Jacobson. “It’s exponential because we’re at the convergence of robotics, gene editing, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, nanotechnology, and space exploration. Although we may feel insecure, uncertain, or fearful of AI, we all want what it offers. That’s how technology progresses.” We all use AI every day. Uber, Waze, and your Apple watch or Fitbit are all examples of AI. “AI makes things nicer, more convenient, faster, cheaper, and easier – we’re not stopping this thing.”

AI’s impact on the job market is undeniable, causing much concern. “South African banks have already shed thousands of jobs,” said Jacobson. “Robots don’t take sick days. This is happening in huge numbers across businesses in South Africa today. When Discovery Bank announces behavioural banking, we know we’re there. In most cases, we’re actually a bit behind.” AI is, however, also having an impact on auditors, lawyers, doctors, and accountants. “Law firms in South Africa have introduced AI for contract management and due diligence. AI is helping anywhere where there are repetitive rules.”

She points to drones as another example of the exponential nature of AI. “Drones used to be military tools. Now, you can go onto Takealot and buy a drone for a few thousand rand. You can stand there and send a drone three kilometres away using a remote control, and control it through its camera. That’s an intense piece of technology, and it’s getting better and more affordable.”

AI can come right into our homes. “You can now buy a gene-editing kit online, and do gene editing in your kitchen. They’re calling it biohacking. It’s impossible to control.”

Google Assistant can now make a phone call on your behalf. This has been proven with an online call to a hairdresser to book an appointment. “Google Assistant can have an unscripted conversation with a human,” said Jacobson. “No one programmed that conversation, and no one understands exactly how it’s doing this. The AI was trained using huge sets of data from English conversations, and by ingesting that data, it worked out patterns. Humans gave it a start and end point, and it worked out the rest. This process is called deep learning, which results in unsupervised AI, you don’t have to programme the in-between bit. Unsupervised AI is faster, cheaper, and surprisingly more reliable than supervised AI.

The rise of AI gives rise to many questions. It may be making things more efficient, but what of the ethical ramifications? “Google tried to set up an AI ethics council saying that AI must be accountable and unbiased. But it’s not accountable,” said Jacobson. Yet, she argues that we’re better off now than we’ve ever been. “There’s less poverty, more disposable income, and widespread internet access.”

In an ever-changing world, where does South Africa stand? Are our schools preparing our children adequately? “Eighty percent of 10 year olds in South Africa cannot read,” said Jacobson. This naturally puts us on the back foot. Even private schools can’t possibly prepare our kids. “Most schools are operating on a model circa 200 years ago.” At one talk she gave, Jacobson said, the parents were asked to raise their hands if they were happy with the quality of their children’s education and if they thought that their children were being prepared for the future of work. “One person put up her hand, and she was a parent from King David!”

South Africa may be behind in many ways, but we’ve produced one of the world’s leaders in AI – Elon Musk. “Musk is from Pretoria. He set out to disrupt Mercedes-Benz, and he did it,” said Jacobson.

“He’s outcompeted NASA with reusable rockets. Through one of his companies, he’s creating a device and a capability that will allow AI to interface with the human brain because he believes that otherwise, we’re going to get left behind. We’re going to have to become AI to keep up.”

With numerous notable AI innovators and companies currently in South Africa, it’s clear we have the brain power to be among the world’s best. “There’s a huge amount happening here, there are pockets of excellence,” said Jacobson. “Yet, we have a massive skills shortage globally. The question is, are we going to try and upscale humans to fill these jobs, or will the robots do it first?”

A university degree is no longer key to set yourself apart, she said. There are thousands of free AI courses available online even through Columbia and Duke universities. “When I hire people, if they have a university degree, especially from a university in South Africa, that’s a strike against them. It means they’ve been standing still for three years. If they’re showing initiative and have certification across a range of appropriate courses, and can demonstrate this practically, that’s what I’m interested in.”

Fear not, not all of us have to be software developers. “There are numerous courses and professions that are shaping the future. In its 2020 report, the World Economic Forum said that some of the top skills you need to succeed in the future world of work include complex problem solving, creativity, critical thinking, and lifelong learning.”

Ultimately, it’s not a question of man versus robot, said Jacobson. “I don’t think we’ll be talking about ourselves as being outside of AI for much longer. We’ll be using biological enhancements, and we’ll find ourselves a bit closer to the machine.”