Trump and South Africa: can the ‘situationship’ be saved?

President Donald Trump suspended all funding to South Africa on Sunday, 2 February 2025, apparently in response to the country’s recent Expropriation Act, which is meant to formalise the government’s authority to seize private property for a public purpose. Many governments have such powers, but in South Africa, the danger is clearly that such powers will be abused to seize white-owned land.

Trump’s message on Truth Social was clear: “South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!”

The South African government is now on notice, if it wasn’t before, that it won’t be “business as usual” with Trump in office, and there’s no right to aid from the United States (US). One might well ask why South Africa needs the aid when it has money for war – er, “peacekeeping” – in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and other secondary priorities.

On the one hand, this is Trump’s approach to foreign aid. Trump doesn’t like the idea of Americans sending money abroad for any reason, even to US allies, especially when he feels that the generosity isn’t reciprocated and that it would be in the self-interest of the recipient nations to pay their own way for defence, healthcare, and so on rather than relying on American support.

On the other, South Africa is being singled out, partly because some of the people in Trump’s orbit – Elon Musk, and to a lesser extent Tucker Carlson – have an occasional interest in South Africa, and partly because South Africa’s policies on race really are egregious. We have our DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion), and so on, but nothing matches the scale and ambition of policies like Black Economic Empowerment, which, let’s be honest, have failed.

South Africa’s opposition parties have fought hard to keep expropriation limited to the constitutional boundaries. But no-one trusts the government to adhere to those, even if the opposition controls the agriculture ministry. The fact is that South Africa has an image problem that is reinforced both by left-wing rhetoric and racial outbursts from extremists that make international news.

South Africa also practically begs for punishment with a foreign policy that embraces totalitarian, left-wing dictatorships and the terrorist version of the Palestinian cause. The fact that South Africa has formed a “Hague Group” to bolster international judicial institutions, which it has ignored itself at times, hasn’t won many friends in Washington, often the target of these bodies.

This particular year brings the US unusual leverage over South Africa. The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade deal that benefits South Africa and other African nations, runs out in September, and renewal is uncertain. The G20 meeting will be in South Africa, and the government has chosen the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”. At least it didn’t choose “equity”.

The US will be the next chair of the G20, and Trump might simply decide not to show up and to question the purpose of the organisation from afar. That would be humiliating for South Africa, and even if it thrusts South Africa into the arms of China or Russia, the American government might simply shrug.

But the relationship between the US and South Africa need not simply be confrontational. There are opportunities for rewards on both ends. South Africa could reform its policies, foreign and domestic, in line with Western norms, and in return, the US could boost investment in South Africa. The US could, for example, back a South African bid to host the Olympics, an event that could serve as an impetus for long-overdue reforms to South African public services.

Many confrontations with Trump end with reconciliation and friendship. That’s because Trump cuts through obfuscation and inertia, and prompts reciprocal efforts toward a solution. His rhetoric isn’t always accurate, but he’s almost always right about the direction in which action is needed. South Africa should try to fall into line. You may lose this round, but you’ll end up winning.

• South African-born Joel Pollak is the senior editor-at-large and in-house counsel at Breitbart News and hosts Breitbart News Sunday. He is a Harvard graduate with high honours in social science and public policy and a law degree. He was once Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon’s speechwriter, and has a Master of Arts in Jewish Studies. Pollak has written several books, including How Trump Won: The Inside Story of a Revolution, and The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days.
• Watch Joel Pollak on the upcoming webinar South Africa in the Trump era Thursday 6 February 2025, 20:00 SAST. Register: bit.ly/jrlive178