Trump’s foreign policy as unpredictable as election victory

Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States (US) this week completes a massive swing away from incumbents in elections around the world so far. In the United Kingdom (UK), France, and South Africa, the ruling parties had their share of the popular vote slashed, with Conservatives in the UK recording their worst election results since the 1830s and going into opposition. Ruling parties in France and South Africa have managed to stay in power only by virtue of shaky coalition governments. Even in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was expected to win in a landslide, didn’t manage to win a majority and had to rely on coalition parties to stay in power, although his party was still comfortably the biggest after the election. Finally, even in neighbouring Botswana, where the ruling party had been in power uninterrupted since independence in 1966 and held a large majority in Parliament going into the election, it was swept away in a major shock, with the main opposition alliance taking power with a large majority.

Why did Trump win?

Articles will be written and detailed studies done, but the simple reason is that the Democratic Party has lost its way. It no longer commands the working-class voter and, indeed, has lost “middle America” almost in totality. It has focused too much on “identity politics” and ignored bread-and-butter issues like inflation and illegal immigration, which is of such importance to working and middle-class Americans. According to the Financial Times, the high cost of living and inflation are the major causes of high levels of anger among electorates around the world. This issue wasn’t adequately addressed by the Democrats.

What does Trump’s win mean for Israel?

Trump’s win is a double-edged sword. Based on his history and public statements, he’s more instinctively pro-Israel than his Democratic opponents, and there’s also no doubt that the majority of his Republican base – barring a few extremists on the hard right – are solidly behind Israel, but things are never that simple in international geopolitics. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly stated that they want to end the US’s involvement in wars abroad and its role as the world’s policeman, and focus more on US domestic matters – an “America-first” policy. It’s also worth remembering that when drone attacks struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia in 2019 and damaged facilities that processed the vast majority of the country’s crude output and raised the risks of a disruption in world oil supplies, apart from offering support for Saudia Arabia’s self-defence, then President Trump did very little. In fact, he seems to have an aversion to using military force abroad.

In addition, his unpredictability and attachment to personal relationships is well known, with his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being especially tempestuous. Although it does seem that Bibi has been making a great effort since the election to get back on good terms.

This raises the following questions: if the Israel/Iran trading of blows escalates to something akin to a full-scale war and Israel requires active assistance, will Trump allow US pilots and planes to participate and put them at risk? Or will he just offer Israel weapons/diplomatic support and little else? Given his hostility to the US being involved in overseas wars, how far will his support go? Second, given his unpredictability and love of drama and glamour, might he decide that now is the time to bring peace to the Middle East and force a settlement on Israel that it might not want, be ready for, or feel is appropriate?

On the other hand, his base and Republican congressmen are unlikely to allow him to do anything to prejudice Israel too much, and the majority of Republican congressmen and senators are solidly behind Israel, which must reduce the risk to an extent. In addition, never forget that for all Trump’s unpredictability, he was the one who finally moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and landed the major deal that brought the Abraham Accords to the Middle East. He might be the one finally to conclude an Israel-Saudi normalisation deal.

What does Trump’s win mean for Africa?

Although there’s great concern that Trump will simply ignore Africa, the Biden administration was also criticised for not giving Africa enough “airtime”. President Joe Biden will visit Africa only in the final weeks of his presidency, when he visits Angola in December. It would be his first trip to the continent since taking office in January 2021. However, Biden did at least host Kenyan President William Ruto in May, the first African leader in more than 15 years to make an official state visit to the US. In addition, first lady Jill Biden visited Kenya last year, one of a series of high-profile visits by US dignitaries to the continent, and the Biden administration won praise for investing in the Lobito Corridor, a railway line linking Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zambia that will be used to transport critical raw materials.

Many doubt that Africa will feature highly on Trump’s agenda, given his desire to focus more on local than international affairs, but Africa’s strategic importance cannot be ignored, given its possession of critical minerals for “green” energy, and the fact that many other world powers have been showing great interest in the continent recently. This might force Trump to engage more with the continent.

In short, at this stage, no-one can forecast how Trump will turn out, which regions will benefit, and which will be worse off as a result of his term in office. The man’s unpredictability makes it impossible to foretell what he’ll do in the week following his inauguration, never mind for the full term of his presidency. Everyone waits with bated breath!

• Harry Joffe is a Johannesburg tax and trust attorney.