US teeters on abandoning SA over foreign policy

The United States (US) is significantly closer to reviewing its important bilateral relationship with South Africa as strained ties between the superpower and Pretoria have prompted concerns among political insiders.

The US House of Representatives recently passed legislation that would require the Biden administration to conduct a full review of America’s relationship with South Africa. The legislation isn’t yet law and still needs to pass the senate and be signed off by the president, but has come very far in the process.

The vote follows a host of anti-Western foreign policy moves on the part of South Africa, which have irked US legislators. These are largely to do with South Africa’s stance on Israel and its ties with Russia, China, and Iran.

Pretoria’s seemingly cosy relationship with Hamas; taking Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on charges of genocide; and many other decisions have angered US legislators. It has threatened to buckle the crucial trade relationship between the two countries, which could ultimately cause serious harm to South Africa, analysts say.

“South Africa is learning that there are consequences for actions,” said entrepreneur and political analyst Howard Sackstein. “Allowing former department of international relations and cooperation [Dirco] minister, Dr Naledi Pandor, to pursue an anti-Western agenda in support of Iran has dire consequences for South Africa in the long term. Opposing Western interests, supporting Hamas, and promoting jihadist causes doesn’t sit well with our largest trading partners. The Americans are angry, and it will be up to new Foreign Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola to try rescue and repair the enormous damage done to South Africa’s reputation in the world by Pandor.”

International affairs analyst Steven Gruzd agreed. “This Bill is making its way through Congress, and it doesn’t spell good news for South Africa,” he said.

“It’s still a long way from being implemented but the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act [AGOA] is responsible for many jobs in industries like the motor and agricultural sectors, and these may be in jeopardy in a country with the highest unemployment rate in the world, so I would be concerned. If South Africa were to be kicked out of AGOA, it would have serious implications. Our community needs to watch seriously and closely.”

Dr Bob Wekesa, the director of the African Centre for the Study of the United States, told the SA Jewish Report, “One can understand where the US is coming from as South Africa’s non-aligned diplomacy appears to have swung to one side. Of course, we have to be concerned about these developments as they could have huge trade implications. There have been miscalculations on the part of the South African government and African National Congress (ANC) strategists, and the US is bound to respond.”

The legislation makes it obligatory for the administration to report to Congress on whether South Africa “has engaged in activities that undermine US national security or foreign policy interests”. The Bill in question accuses South Africa of building ties with countries that undermine US national security.

A review of the relationship may endanger South Africa’s place in AGOA, a significant trade pact that grants South Africa and many eligible African countries duty-free access to the US for thousands of goods. South Africa is the largest US trade partner in Africa and the largest beneficiary of AGOA.

According to political analysts, factors such as South Africa’s non-aligned stance on Russia and Ukraine and its anti-Israel stance on the war in the Middle East have marked a turning point in the relationship between the two countries.

It extends further, with a string of questionable anti-West incidents which have raised the ire of the US and her allies. Cosying up to Hamas, a designated terrorist organisation; making a visit to Tehran in the wake of the 7 October attack; and hosting trilateral naval exercises with China and Russia are a few of these.

The Bill, introduced by Republican Representative John James, was approved by the US House’s Foreign Affairs Committee in March. It called on the administration to conduct a comprehensive review of US relations with South Africa, including South Africa’s continued eligibility for benefits under AGOA.

James is chairperson of the Africa subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He told the House during the debate on the issue in June that they “would simply require the Biden administration to make a determination on whether South Africa’s actions are undermining the United States”.

“The current uncertainty in South Africa following last month’s elections makes the determinations required by this amendment all the more timely,” he said. “In order to engage strategically with South Africa, it’s necessary to ensure the US government has a contemporary view of the bilateral relationship.”

James said he was proud that the US had cordial relations with South Africa, including more than $8 billion (R145 trillion) which the US had spent in South Africa since 2003 to help fight HIV/Aids.

He said trade had grown from $13.9 billion (R252 billion) in 2015 to $21 billion (R380 billion) in 2021, making South Africa America’s largest trade partner in Africa. More than 600 US businesses were invested in South Africa.

“It’s clear to me that the ANC of today is no longer the party of Mandela,” James said. “The ANC continuously moves away from its traditional stance of non-alignment in international affairs.”

He cited several examples of what he regarded as evidence of this shift, including South Africa’s display of “consistent and overt anti-Israel sentiment” since the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 – “our number-one ally in the Middle East”.

Said Gruzd, “This is also a sign of the deteriorating relationship between South Africa and the US, which has been put under strain especially since the start of the Ukraine conflict and, of course, since 7 October, with South Africa’s strong backing of the ICJ case against Israel on genocide charges. That hasn’t made the US happy, and US taxpayers are asking why they should support funding and trading with a country opposed to their national interests. I think efforts are going to be made to touch up this relationship – President Cyril Ramaphosa has invited US President Joe Biden for a state visit – but it’s a relationship that has been under strain.”