Vaccine could be shot in the arm for Netanyahu in 2021

For most of us, next year can’t come soon enough! Here’s a look at what’s in the pipeline for Israel and the broader region.

Coronavirus

The much-anticipated American biotech firm Moderna’s vaccine against COVID-19 is expected to become available in Israel during the first half of 2021. Meanwhile, Israel’s Biological Research Institute is scheduled to begin testing its own coronavirus vaccine in humans by the end of this year, raising the possibility that it will be ready before Moderna’s.

If the virus isn’t in check in the next six months, between 60 000 to 80 000 Israeli businesses may be forced to close. This bleak prediction follows a 70% jump in the number of closures this year compared to 2019. Worst-hit industries include restaurants, construction, transportation, and fashion stores.

Israeli elections

Israel faces the prospect of political chaos once again after legislators last week approved a preliminary measure that would dissolve the turbulent coalition government. This sets the country up for its fourth election in two years. The push to topple the coalition received a major boost when leader of the Blue and White party, Benny Gantz, who shares power with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced that he would support ending the government.

In addition, the 2020 budget hasn’t yet been passed. If this doesn’t happen by 23 December – and the chances are diminishing by the hour – parliament will automatically dissolve, and elections will follow next March.

Israel has been operating on its 2019 budget and as things stand, this budget will continue into next year. The problem is that government spending is supposed to increase each year to ensure that services keep pace with the growth of the population. The transition from year to year without a budget creates major problems for the ministry of finance.

But for Netanyahu, new elections are good news. If a COVID-19 vaccine is rolled out next year, that would help ease the health crisis, and he has a better chance of winning a larger majority and forming a government without Gantz’s help.

Polls suggest a combination of right-wing factions, including Netanyahu’s Likud, the ultra-Orthodox groups, and a party led by former Defence Minister Naftali Bennett, would obtain a clear majority of Knesset (parliament) seats if a vote was held today. Bennett, who has focused relentlessly on efforts to counter the pandemic, has soared in popularity, and is positioned to play a kingmaker role in the coalition-building that always follows elections.

Iran

American President-elect Joe Biden has said he will rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the P5 + 1 and EU (European Union), colloquially known as the Iran nuclear deal. He has also promised to lift sanctions on Tehran, but only if its leadership returns to strict compliance with the deal.

Tehran insists that it won’t accept preconditions from a new Biden administration, and says the United States (US) must return to the 2015 deal before talks can take place. Both sides appear to want the other to readopt the agreement’s terms first. This has led key Israeli and American officials to doubt that a deal will be reached in 2021, much to the satisfaction of the Israeli government.

But it’s still possible that next year, there might be a smaller, short-term, confidence building interim agreement. The Gulf states, particularly those with whom Israel has in recent months established relations – the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain – are demanding to be consulted if a US nuclear accord with Tehran is revived. Like Israel, it’s not in their interest for Washington to engage with Tehran, which they, too, consider to be an arch enemy.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the next moderate Sunni Islam country on the cards for Israel to make peace with. But Riyadh is insisting it won’t normalise relations with Jerusalem until a Palestinian state is established.

Last month, Netanyahu reportedly held a secret meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Saudi Red Sea city of Neom, alongside US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The countries are believed to have long held clandestine ties, particularly on the issue of Iran. Following the meeting, the Saudi foreign minister said, “We have supported normalisation with Israel for a long time. We think Israel will take its place in the region.” But he stressed that it was “critically important” to encourage the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. It remains to be seen whether ties between the two countries will be formalised in 2021.

Middle East

The US is expected to continue to disengage from the Middle East, and Russia continues to fill the vacuum it leaves in its wake. Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence of Russian troops on their borders. Saudi Arabia has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment.

China, too, is gaining ground. According to surveys of people in the region, Beijing is a more popular global power than America or Russia. Its influence in the Middle East will only grow in 2021.

Still, Iran remains the primary axis around which countries in the region are orientating themselves. The UAE’s de facto ruler, Mohammad bin Zayed, is active against political Islam in the region, which he views as a major threat. He has used the UAE’s hefty resources to beat back Islamist groups. This pits Bin Zayed against Turkey’s strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who champions the Islamists. Istanbul has become a hive of Arab dissidents.

Most Arab states still don’t consider Turkey to be as big a threat as Iran. But countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are increasingly concerned about Erdogan’s adventures in their backyards. With Turkey drifting away from the West and towards Iran and Russia, a so-called “rejectionist” bloc is forming in the region.

• Paula Slier is the Middle East bureau chief of RT, the founder and chief executive of Newshound Media, and the inaugural winner of the Europcar Women in Leadership Award of the South African Absa Jewish Achievers.