Watershed vote raises questions

DANIEL SILKE

There is much to praise in the new competitive political environment. Politicians should be more responsive to the needs of the electorate as they now fear losing their jobs come the next election. The ANC’s “bloody nose” means the party is now forced to interrogate its own wrongdoings and excesses – notably rising levels of corruption and poor governance.  

And, for many, the fact that the sky did not fall in when the ANC lost control of Johannesburg or Tshwane can unleash a genie of political competition that might be very tough to put back into the bottle.

Above all else, this local poll was always going to have national ramifications occurring in the shadow of the Constitutional Court judgment on President Jacob Zuma’s Nkandla payback.

Voters clearly spoke on all these issues and the ANC will be forced to react over the coming 30 months until the 2019 election campaign is announced.

Of course, competitive democracy is critical for the efficient functioning of any society. Amidst the euphoria of the newfound checks and balances imposed on a weakened ANC, the real issue is just how will the governing party react to its poor showing.

Can it repair the damage with its own supporters – an increasing body of them having not only voted for the DA or EFF but also abstaining entirely? Can the ANC extricate itself from the Zuma presidency and find a new leader who commands respect across the increasingly fractious factional divide?’

Finally, how does the ANC interpret the election results? Does it shift left, right or drift rudderless in an ongoing state of policy paralysis?

Ultimately, this election brings into focus the core issue: Is this the beginning of the end of the ANC’s hegemony, or can it be “reborn”?

The immediate state of the ANC post-election is deeply problematic. Indeed, the electoral loss has only exacerbated deep divisions, personality and ideological clashes, as well as Zuma-induced polarisation.

Any party suffering substantial losses – especially a liberation party used to repeated success – is likely to be wounded for some time. 

An attempted repair of this magnitude will take time. While the party can be torn asunder by a knee-jerk and therefore debilitating blame game for the poor results, expect a more incremental and considered attempt to analyse and change direction.

Clearly the position of Jacob Zuma is an important part of repairing the ANC. Again, to expect the ANC to acquiesce to the demands of the EFF and smaller parties regarding Zuma is naïve. The ANC will deal with Zuma in its own time – as frustratingly and damagingly slow this already has been.

Remember, the ANC finds itself now in a position in which it has absolutely no experience or precedence to fall back on. It has been harmed at the polls to a position of marginal power. Its president has been at the centre (although not entirely) of this loss of support. And, the electoral losses have been both to the left (EFF) and centre-right (DA) in a classic pincer-style squeeze result.

This is an ANC that now faces every unknown in the political book for a party of liberation. It therefore has a stark choice to be pragmatic in government or be populist to offset electoral losses to the left.

Already suffering from a high degree of policy paralysis, these choices are equally tough for the ANC to make. They are likely to add to the divisions already present as policy polarisation is compounded by electoral uncertainty and ongoing turf wars for well-connected (but more vulnerable) cadre apparatchiks. It’s a position almost untenable.

So we come back to quality leadership as a catalyst for a reversal of the ANC’s misfortune. It is entirely possible that a new leader – less tainted by scandal – can bring some relief. But even then, the party has to make some tough choices.

Will its patronage-infused recent history continue to keep a softer support base in the rural areas relatively happy? Can it develop policies for a more demanding (and numerically increasing) urban electorate? Again, it is a tough series of choices which only outstanding leadership can deliver.

This is indeed a watershed for South Africa. But a fragmented Opposition and a wounded liberation party still make for combustible – very combustible – politics in the months ahead. It’s an initial type of political maturity that needs much nurturing.

Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website at www.danielsilke.com