What Trump 2.0 portends for SA and Israel

Donald Trump’s resounding shellacking of Kamala Harris at the polls on 5 November took many by surprise, including me. Trump won 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 226, much more than the 270 needed to become the 47th president of the United States (US). I was expecting a much closer contest, especially in the seven swing states. Trump easily swept them all. As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency in 2025, what does this mean for South Africa and Israel?

I thought Trump’s chaotic first term, his crassness, his criminal conviction, and his age would have counted against him. Nope. It seems most American voters have short memories, and much to the consternation and confusion of many around the world, delivered a Trump landslide. His emphasis on illegal immigration and the economy turned up, well, trumps. Harris couldn’t shake off the shortcomings of the Joe Biden administration, even when Biden dramatically dropped out of the race on 21 July after a disastrous televised debate against Trump.

In his first term (2017-2021), Trump showed little interest in South Africa or indeed Africa. He never visited the continent, but neither did Biden, to be fair, and Trump infamously referred to “shithole countries” when describing African states. He publicly referred to Namibia as “Nambia”, and tweeted about white farmers being murdered in South Africa. That was about it, apart from supporting the fight against ISIS (Islamic State) in Africa’s vast, sparsely governed Sahel region.

This time around, I don’t expect Africa to feature much in Trump’s presidency either. He has two major wars raging – in Ukraine and the Middle East, and has boasted that he could quickly end both once in office again. These conflicts are likely to draw his foreign policy attention, along with a looming resumption of a trade war with China. He will also focus on getting Europeans to chip in more for their defence under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as he did in his first term.

A huge question, however, hangs over Africa’s future trade with the US. In existence since 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is an American law designed to allow sub-Saharan Africa to strengthen economic relations with the US by increasing exports on favourable terms. It’s not a mutually agreed free trade agreement, but a unilateral act of Congress. South Africa has benefited tremendously from AGOA, especially in the automotive, wine, and fresh-produce industries. AGOA comes up for renewal in 2025, and may fall victim to Trump’s vision of himself as the ultimate dealmaker. In his first term, he killed the North American Free Trade Area as too skewed towards Canada and Mexico, replacing it in 2020 with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He’s likely to try win more trade concessions and market openings for American goods from Africa in the reauthorisation of AGOA. With the Republicans taking back the Senate and predicted to retain the House of Representatives, it gives Trump far more power than he had in 2017 on the trade front to squeeze Africa.

Another area where Pretoria may feel the heat from Washington is on its case of “genocide” against Israel at the International Court of Justice and its perceived support for states like China, Iran, and Russia. There have already been a few attempts in Congress to link AGOA privileges to a thorough review of the US-South Africa relationship. These might gather steam in the new Congress.

As for Israel, it will definitely be on Trump’s radar. In his first term, he was steadfastly pro-Israel (or rather, pro-Benjamin Netanyahu). He moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem; recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights; and shepherded Israel’s normalisation with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates under the Abraham Accords. Trump unveiled his peace plan for the Middle East, which didn’t go far.

As he enters office for the second time in January 2025, Trump will need to contend with Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Will the dealmaker extraordinaire be able to secure the safe release of the 101 remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and a lasting ceasefire? Can he bring Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab states into the Abraham Accords? In part, it was the prospect of peace between Riyadh and Jerusalem that led to 7 October.

In recent years, the Republicans have become more staunch Israel supporters, while the left-wing of the Democratic Party – and some in the centre – have spoken out strongly against the Jewish state. American voters have clearly supported the former at the expense of the latter, as the new Congressional map shows the Republicans’ ascendency.

Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory as he hopes to overcome Biden-era misgivings and tensions over the way Israel is conducting the war in Gaza and Lebanon. He will expect the new Congress to support Israel’s pursuit of its enemies, including Iran.

So, while Africa and South Africa may suffer from benign neglect or a shakeup of trade ties, support for Israel is likely to be a much higher priority for the Hill and the Trump White House. One thing’s for sure, it’s unlikely to be a dull four years.

• Steven Gruzd is a political analyst in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.