Will Israel face another Groundhog Day?

Machaneh Yehuda market in the heart of Jerusalem is one of the oldest authentic local “fortresses” of the Likud party. Whenever a right-wing candidate wants to get the support and affection of the general public, “Machne Yuda” (as it’s affectionately pronounced) is your destination as a politician.

Luckily, I happened to be in Jerusalem this week, and found my way there to enjoy its delicious smells and flavours. It just so happens that some of the top leaders of the Likud party were there for a campaign tour in the run-up to the elections on 1 November. This will be the fifth election in Israel in less than four years, and all indications are that the population is tired of elections.

Machaneh Yehuda used to be a significant compass to check the public pulse: the level of noise and mess in the market reflected the enthusiasm and interest in elections or a specific candidate. This is so evident in the many photographs you can find in the market booths that include the first Likud prime minister, the late Menachem Begin, and other leaders.

Last week though, although prominent figures made their way through the legendary market, there was hardly any excitement from either merchants or shoppers. There were some flags, but just a handful of paid activists and general apathy around.

Don’t get me wrong, most of those bystanders will go out and vote for Israel’s longest serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi), and his partners next week. They will do this for the fifth time in four years, but they will do it without any real belief that it will change anything.

When I wrote about the situation in the run-up to the previous four elections, we were looking at exactly the same themes and issues as this election. And like those elections, this election is also all about Bibi.

• Between now and 1 November, there are a number of things to watch out for. First, spot the small parties at risk of either achieving the minimum votes needed to make it into the Knesset, which is 140 000, or not. If they pass the threshold, they secure four seats, if not, they have none.
• Watch this election for a new and different star or kingmaker who gets all the attention.
• Since this election was declared in June, there has been a complete freeze in the polls and a totally balanced picture being portrayed. This picture portrays almost 60 Knesset seats being likely to go to those obviously supporting Bibi and about 60 seats likely to go to future Knesset members who oppose Bibi’s potential new government. This is an uncomfortable balance because one seat here or there can mean the difference between Bibi as leader or a totally different government.

Inside each bloc, crucial changes have been made since the last election, but at the end of the day, these changes make absolutely no difference. However, if the seesaw balance is slightly heavier on one side with one or two more seats, it will change the country’s leadership totally.

If Bibi and his solid partners (haredim and extreme right party) get 61 seats, Netanyahu can form a government. It would be weak, fragile, and backed by the fascist Kahana supporters – but King Bibi will be crowned again.

Any other scenario may be preferable, but leaves Israel in an era of uncertainty and maybe another election soon.

• As soon as you can, check the turnout at the polls among Arab citizens. Almost a fifth of Israeli voters are non-Jewish. Most of them vote for Arab parties. The Islamic one even backed the last coalition (and its prominent, brave leader, Mansour Abbas, who accepts Israel as the Jewish homeland). More than the rest of the Israelis, they are frustrated by high crime rates and violence, poor infrastructure, and have low confidence in their leadership that despises one another and can’t work together. All the signs indicate a record collapse in Arab voter numbers. Two elections ago, meaning two years ago, Arab parties occupied 15 seats in the Knesset. With luck, they will occupy eight seats in the coming election. This will obviously have a direct effect on the anti-Bibi bloc.
• Threshold surprises: As always, there are some parties with a huge question mark around whether they can reach the minimum number of votes to reach the Knesset threshold. Those threshold surprises in the coming week’s election are mainly from the anti-Bibi side, which is chaotic, with a number of smaller and not dependable parties. On Netanyahu’s side, it’s only Ayelet Shaked’s HaBait HaYehudy party that’s under threat of not making the threshold. This is the party of the previous premier, Naftali Bennett. However, as we have said, just one surprise, and the map can change completely. It takes just one party of many not making the threshold to make the difference. Polls this week show that four different parties (on the anti-Bibi side) are teetering on the threshold, and their results can go either way next week. It takes a drama of a few hundred votes to make the difference.
• The overall sum of the blocs of pro and anti-Netanyahu are the only bottom-line parameters. But one terrifying rock star is ruling this time, soon to become a huge surprise of this campaign: Itamar Ben-Gvir (this election’s coalition kingmaker). He is a far-right-wing follower of the late far-right-wing ideologue Meir Kahane, who was once convicted of racist incitement. Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema is a pale moderate compared to Ben-Gvir. He’s a racist, fundamentalist, extremist, but a straightforward, eye-level talker on Israeli hot topics. At least 10 seats or more would be a tremendous victory for him and a frightening sign for Israel. However, it will also be a burden to Netanyahu in forming an effective government.

Most Israelis today dream of a clear-cut win for either side and not a draw. People are eager to have a winner that will either make Bibi king again, or some kind of surprise that Lapid gets 61 seats. But their worst nightmare is Groundhog Day yet again.

• Zvika (Biko) Arran is a publicist, social entrepreneur, lawyer, advisor to philanthropists, and is in Israel at the moment working on the elections. He lives in Johannesburg with his wife and four sons.