Will Israel policy impact on Western Cape vote?

STEVEN GRUZD

After all, Christians (not all of them Israel supporters, of course) make up about 88% of the province’s population, compared to just 5% who are Muslims, and 0.5% who are Jewish, according to Statistics South Africa. The SA Jewish Report consulted pundits and politicians to explore the Western Cape provincial race more deeply.

If the mooted downgrade happens before election day, Darren Bergman, the Democratic Alliance (DA) Member of Parliament (MP) and deputy shadow minister of international relations says, “I think many Jewish and Zionist voters of the ANC would change their vote to more progressive parties. They would understand that a downgrade is an own-goal that will stifle bilateral trade that has helped the South African economy as well as much-needed agricultural and technological advances. A downgrade would hurt South Africa more than it would Israel.”

Gareth van Onselen, the Head of Politics and Governance at the South African Institute of Race Relations, says, “I am not sure if DIRCO’s [the Department of International Relations and Cooperation’s] decision will directly affect the national vote. The DA’s response to that decision, however, if it does happen, will be telling. And it could well have an effect on the DA’s Jewish support base, one way or the other. I don’t think the party can afford to be quiet on it, as it has tried to do with a great many controversial issues in the past. It will have to take a clear, unambiguous position.”

But it’s not that simple. Does Israel policy even matter in these (or any) elections in South Africa? Michael Bagraim, DA MP and shadow minister of labour says, “Israel has never been a real issue in the Western Cape. We see so much press on this ‘wedge issue’ that we thought it would make a difference in [2014], but in fact it wasn’t taken up by the Muslim community.”

Van Onselen says, “When the DA has erred on its policy position on Israel… it has resulted in immediate and significant unhappiness with the party. Outside of the DA, the ANC routinely uses Israel to try and mobilise support against the DA. I am not sure how successful it has been, given its declining fortunes in the Western Cape.”

Wayne Sussman, who analyses by-elections for the Daily Maverick, says, “The ANC and [Islamic party] Al Jama-ah have come out with posters in the past few elections relating to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and while this always attracts media attention, it tends to be low down on the priority list for most voters. Equally, the African Christian Democratic Party has struggled to translate its unabashed support for Israel into votes.”

We must be wary of assuming anything about how groups vote. Cherrel Africa, the Associate Professor of Political Studies at the University of the Western Cape, says that she is not aware of data analysing voting choice by religion and views on Israel, which indicates these are not key variables for voters. “Therefore, while segments of the electorate may hold strong views on single issues, their voting choices are influenced by a range of complex factors.”

Africa says, “Perceptions of the importance of the ‘coloured vote’ have resulted in campaigning that often encompasses unintentional or deliberate racial mobilisation and inflammatory political rhetoric… [but] national political developments and party behaviour are crucial influences on voter perceptions and behaviour in the Western Cape.

“While race and racial issues remain salient, we need to move beyond reducing voting choices to racial identity and the presumption of racially-defined voting blocs.” She acknowledges that different race groups in the province face different forms of persuasion, information networks, life experiences, and socio-economic circumstances.

Sussman says degrees of urbanisation and race are more important divides in the Western Cape than religion. “Muslims in Cape Town tended to vote more for the ANC than Christian voters, but this has changed.” He cites Ward 48, where late ANC stalwart Dullah Omar and his family have deep roots. It includes the religious Muslim community of Gatesville and Rylands, with more middle- to upper-middle-class Muslim voters. The ANC won the ward with just more than 50% in the 2000 local government elections. In a 2005 by-election, Omar’s wife won 61% of the vote. In 2006, the ANC won the ward with 38%. This dropped to 15% in 2011, and 6% in 2016.

Africa says an outright majority for the DA in the Western Cape is far from guaranteed. Surveys and by-elections suggest a dip in support. Factors include drought management, and Patricia De Lille’s tortuous departure.

“Additionally, in a dramatically changed national political context, challenges such as a lack of congruence in DA leaders’ public statements, the resignation of Gwen Ngwenya as the DA’s policy chief, and its campaign approach embodied in the #TheANCIsKillingSA billboard, does not bode well for the party’s provincial performance.”

Any party’s foreign policy is but one of many factors influencing voter choice. Says Bergman, “It should count for about 5% of your perception of that party”, and is much less important than the personal well-being parties offer.

Van Onselen concurs. “I don’t think foreign policy in and of itself matters greatly. That’s the same for almost any issue. It is very rare in politics the world over for one issue to determine voting behaviour. But that is not to say it does not matter at all. It defines people’s views together with a range of other issues and can easily help push perceptions in one way or the other.”

So while Israel is in the mix in the Western Cape, it won’t ultimately decide the election.

• Steven Gruzd is an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs. He recently co-published ‘Israel’s ties with Africa: A focus on Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa’.